Forecasters predicting ‘somewhat below-normal’ 2026 Atlantic hurricane season

Colorado State University researchers on Thursday projected a “somewhat below-normal” Atlantic hurricane season.

The school’s forecast models predict 13 named storms, instead of 14 to 15 in an average year, six hurricanes instead of seven, and two reaching major storm strength instead of three.

The research based their model on waters being slightly cooler than normal in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic and for currently weak La Niña conditions to likely transition to El Niño in a few months.

“We anticipate El Niño being the dominant factor for the upcoming hurricane season, driving increased levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear,” the researchers posted online.

Vertical wind shear usually helps weaken or disrupt storms.

The model still shows sea surface temperatures in the western tropical Atlantic warmer than normal, as has been the case in recent years.

The storm season runs from June 1 to November 30.

The meteorological company AccuWeather previously predicted 11 to 16 named storms for 2026, with four to seven reaching hurricane strength.

The AccuWeather forecast also included the potential development of El Niño weather phenomenon conditions, which would limit tropical activity to near or below historical average levels, especially in the second half and climatological peak of the season.

Last year, the Atlantic produced 13 named storms and five hurricanes, with four reaching Category 3—winds of 111 mph to 130 mph, and storm surge of 9 feet to 12 feet above normal tide.

None of the 2025 storms, though, made a direct landfall in Florida or the U.S.

From 2022 to 2024, Florida took direct hits from six hurricanes, including four that were Category 3 or stronger.

AccuWeather, one of several outfits that will release outlooks for the season, included in its forecast the potential for three to five of the named systems to directly affect the U.S.