Conservative as California’s next governor? It’s looking more likely, according to a poll

With less than three months to go before the June 2 primary election, California is faced with a historic, unprecedented possibility: two Republicans heading into the November run-off, and a conservative governor leading the deep-blue state.

The fear of losing the governor’s office among Democrats may have been solidified as the latest poll by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies shows former Fox News host Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco have the most support from likely voters.

As of March, 17% of likely California voters said they support Hilton while 16% support Bianco, according to the poll.

Congressman Eric Swalwell and former Congresswoman Katie Porter are trailing the two GOP contenders in third place with 13% of support each.

Tom Steyer, a billionaire businessman and environmentalist, has gone from 1% in October 2025 to 10% in March 2026, largely thanks to his campaign ad blitz on television and digital spaces.

The rest of the candidates haven’t broken out even though some of them joined the gubernatorial race months before Swalwell and Steyer.

Former Health Secretary Xavier Becerra has 5% of support while former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan are at 4%.

Former California State Controller Betty Yee and California Superintendent Tony Thurmond have 1% of support from likely voters.

What’s different about the recent numbers is more California voters have made up their mind about who they want to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom. When the same questions were asked in October 2025, nearly half of California voters said they were undecided. Fast-forward to March 2026, about 16% are undecided.

Another takeaway from the poll is while California voters seem generally unenthusiastic about the gubernatorial race, Republican voters and those who align with the MAGA movement are concentrating their support behind Hilton and Bianco, according to the poll.

It may be why frightened Democratic leaders are pleading with some with candidates who haven’t gained traction to drop out of the race before April 15, so that voters have time to adjust before the primary election, and the Democratic Party can consolidate its support behind viable candidates.

“(We) all have a duty to act in a responsible manner with the opportunities and support we have earned. I believe it starts with a candid assessment of the political landscape around you, an honest reflection on your viability to win the race, and the courage to make a tough choice,” California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks said in an open letter earlier this month.

As of Tuesday, the candidates with less than 5% support have not said whether they would be dropping out of the race.