The cherry blossoms haven’t even started peeking out yet, but the trees on the Tidal Basin will have a very different look by the end of this month. Storm Team4 is predicting peak bloom this year from March 30 to April 5.
Based on the cold winter and only a brief warmup, Storm Team 4 is predicting a later peak bloom than we’ve seen the last few years, closer to the beginning of April.
Typically peak bloom happens in late March to early April. Peak bloom last year was declared March 28.
Here are factors Storm Team4 considered when making our prediction:
How cold it’s been this winter:
Temperatures in February ran more than 5° below average. When we calculate Growing Degree Days (GDD), we’ve only had one since Feb. 1 this year, compared with 22 last year at this time.
Temperatures moving forward:
Expect warmer-than-normal temperatures through the middle of the month, and then a cooler finish. This will allow the blossoms to get going, but then will slow the process toward the end of the month.
Indicator Tree:
The indicator tree is a few days ahead of the other trees and still shows no signs of approaching Stage 1, according to the National Park Service.
There are six blooming stages for the cherry blossoms, including peak bloom. We’ve yet to hit phase 1.
Once the blossoms are out, we’ll want calm, cool weather to keep the petals on the trees. Warmth and/or winds will shorten the duration of peak bloom.
Pleak bloom is defined as when 70% of the Yoshino cherry blossoms are out around the Tidal Basin.
Cherry blossom challenge 2026: Share your own peak bloom prediction!
Storm Team4’s made their prediction — but what do YOU think? Send us your guess for when the trees will bloom. The person who gets the closest without going over will receive a cherry blossom-themed NBC4 & Telemundo 44 prize pack.
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