Robust early voting turnout for Virginia redistricting referendum

Early voting for Virginia’s redistricting referendum is outpacing last year’s gubernatorial election.

The special election on a constitutional amendment that dramatically redraws congressional districts to combine heavily blue areas with rural areas is three weeks away, but more than half a million ballots have been cast since early voting began March 6.

Ten of Virginia’s 11 congressional seats could go blue compared to six, now.

Virginia Democrats created the map as a countermeasure to President Donald Trump’s push for Republican states to add GOP seats before the midterm elections.

“Yes, absolutely we need to level the field,” said a Democrat voting yes on the redrawn maps. “We cannot let one person become king.”

“I just think it’s another way the Democrats are trying to take control of the state,” said a voter who cast a ballot against the amendment.

The “yes” vote campaign has an enormous edge in fundraising and star power, with former President Barack Obama appearing in ads.

Republican leaders urging a “no” vote are encouraged that early turnout is strongest in GOP-leaning areas. Virginia GOP Chairman Jeff Ryer believes some Democrats and independents oppose the gerrymandered map.

“This particular scheme makes us the most gerrymandered state in the country, so we’re not as sure that the Democratic votes are uniform in this particular case, and in addition to that, we feel extremely encouraged by what we are seeing among independent voters,” he said.

Fairfax County Democratic Party Chair Debra Linick says they also see more Democratic turnout in those traditionally red counties. She said there is momentum and enthusiasm on the “yes” vote side.

“We are seeing our volunteers really energized and motivated,” she said. “So we are covering the polls; we are out knocking doors; we are sending personal, individual postcards. We’re also seeing with the absentee ballots that people are returning their absentee ballots in really strong, healthy numbers, too.”

Political analyst Stephen Farnsworth of the University of Mary Washington says the current political climate — with the Iran war and soaring gas prices — could also bolster the “yes” campaign.

“If you are a ‘yes’ vote on the amendment, talking about President Trump is probably your most effective strategy, and it’s a particularly effective strategy right now given all the unpopularity of some of the things going on in the larger political environment,” he said.

The outcome of the April 21 vote may also be seen as the latest referendum on Trump.