Where Phillies’ Crawford, Painter stand in loaded National League rookie class

A new look.

Justin Crawford and Andrew Painter will join a Phillies core that is comfortably in its early thirties. They’ll also be part of a highly talented rookie class in the National League.

The Rookie of the Year landscape will be congested, but the Phillies center fielder and fifth starter will be contributors from the jump, bolstering their chances to be strong competitors for the award.

There’s another layer to it. Under the Prospect Promotion Incentive, introduced in the 2022 Collective Bargaining Agreement, teams that break camp with a top-100 prospect on their Opening Day roster are eligible for a compensatory draft pick if that player wins Rookie of the Year or finishes in the top three of MVP or Cy Young voting before hitting arbitration.

Both Crawford and Painter qualify for PPI eligibility entering the spring, meaning the Phillies stand to gain a draft pick after the first round if either player has a big enough year. It’s an incentive that has already paid off for six organizations, most recently the Braves and Astros, after Drake Baldwin and Hunter Brown helped the clubs earn picks in this year’s draft.

Beginning with the Phillies —

The Phillies lineup is looking dangerous

OF Justin Crawford

Pressure on the defense. That’s what Crawford will bring from day one. Last Saturday, the 22-year-old officially made the big-league club and will be the youngest Phillies regular since another 22-year-old, Jimmy Rollins, in 2001. Crawford will spray the ball to all fields and constantly use his legs to an advantage. Crawford won’t pile up home runs — he’s hit 19 over 325 professional games. He’s an old-school player, and his bat-to-ball skills are big-league ready. It’s why the organization is excited to see what he can bring to the bottom of the order. Trea Turner won the batting title in the National League at .304 last season. Crawford is a .322 career hitter in the minors. It would not be out of the ordinary if he made a run for the award out of the gate.

Odds for ROY (FanDuel): 22/1

RHP Andrew Painter

The 6-foot-7 right-hander slots into the Phillies rotation with Zack Wheeler on the shelf. After missing two seasons following a torn UCL in 2023, Painter’s five-pitch mix is plus across the board — a high-nineties fastball, breaking pitches with high spin and a changeup he’s looking to incorporate more heavily into his repertoire. Command will be the determining factor. The Phillies have long struggled to draft and develop starting pitchers from within since Aaron Nola. However, Painter’s potential to change that narrative is undeniable. He is surrounded by one of the most elite staffs in baseball and displayed strong composure throughout Grapefruit League action. These factors give him a genuine chance to contend for the award.

Odds for ROY (FanDuel): 25/1

Andrew Painter recaps his start against the Orioles on Friday after striking out four in 2.2 innings.

The favorites

RHP Nolan McLean (NYM)

An easy name to remember. McLean got his first taste of big-league ball last year and was dominant. The Phillies saw him twice — 13 1/3 innings, one run allowed. He posted a 2.06 ERA in eight starts with 57 strikeouts. The Mets’ top-ranked prospect features a six-pitch repertoire headlined by a sinker that helped him generate a 60.2 percent ground-ball rate — would have ranked top eight in baseball among qualified pitchers — and a sweeper that has drawn breaking-ball comparisons to John Smoltz. He’s already seen World Baseball Classic action for Team USA and slots in alongside Freddy Peralta in New York’s rotation.

Odds for ROY (FanDuel): +280

SS Konnor Griffin (PIT)

Every indicator says the No. 1 prospect in baseball is a can’t-miss. Five tools, 19-years-old, 6-foot-3 and 222 pounds — the ideal prototype at his position. His path to the award is more complicated, though. This past Saturday, the Pirates announced he was returning to minor-league camp, a likely service-time maneuver. In his first professional season, Griffin posted a .941 OPS, hit .333, hit 21 home runs, totaled 48 extra-base hits, drove in 94 and swiped 65 bases. Pittsburgh invested in free agency for the first time in years, and his arrival could make them a legitimate playoff contender.

Odds for ROY (FanDuel): 4/1

Strong contenders

2B JJ Wetherholt (STL)

For the first time in a while, the Cardinals lack star power. They’ve shed payroll in back-to-back seasons and now have the runway to feature their top-ranked prospect. Selected seventh overall in the 2024 draft out of West Virginia, all Wetherholt has done is hit. Last season between Double-A and Triple-A, the Baltimore native posted a .931 OPS with 47 extra-base hits. Like Crawford, his hit tool and bat-to-ball skills are pro-ready. His athleticism projects as a 50 extra-base hit, 20-to-25 steal player at his peak, and he has a clear path to the leadoff spot as St. Louis’ everyday second baseman.

Odds for ROY (FanDuel): 11/2

INF Sal Stewart (CIN)

At 21 last year, Stewart showed why he was one of the more balanced hitters in the minors when he earned a late-season call-up. In 58 plate appearances, he hit .255 with five home runs, a .545 slugging percentage and an .839 OPS. Now 22, he’s already swinging a hot bat — a 1.113 OPS in 43 spring at-bats — and is slated to hit in the heart of Cincinnati’s lineup at first base. He lost nearly 25 pounds in the offseason and has already publicly stated his goal of bringing home the hardware.

Odds for ROY (FanDuel): 7/1

RHP Bubba Chandler (PIT)

Part of Pittsburgh’s youth infusion alongside Griffin, Chandler fills up the strike zone — his 3.2 walk percentage in limited action last year ranked fourth among pitchers with at least 30 innings. His fastball averaged 98.9 mph, in the top two percent of the league. He finished the year strong as well. In his final three starts of last season, he allowed two runs and struck out 19 in 16 2/3 innings. He slots into the backend of Pittsburgh’s rotation for now, but the pure arm talent is front-of-the-rotation caliber.

Odds for ROY (FanDuel): 20/1

Other candidates

OF Carson Benge (NYM)

Juan Soto’s move back to left field opens right field for the Mets’ top-ranked position player prospect. McLean’s roommate at Oklahoma State and fellow two-way college player, Benge has been one of the faster risers in the minors since being drafted in the first round in 2024. He still finished his first full professional season with an .857 OPS, despite struggling after a Triple-A call-up. He’s demonstrated an exceptional ability to drive the ball to all fields with power, and was 15-for-41 in camp this spring (.366).

Odds for ROY (FanDuel): 22/1

1B Bryce Eldridge (SF)

The pop is real. The path to consistent playing time in San Francisco is not. With Rafael Devers and Luis Arraez in the mix, at-bats will be hard to come by, and Eldridge did not break camp with the Giants. Still, the underlying numbers are hard to ignore — 25 home runs in 102 games across Double-A and Triple-A, a 63.5 percent hard-hit rate at the upper level and a 95.7 mph average exit velocity. If the opportunity comes early, he’ll slot into one of the deeper lineups in baseball.

Odds for ROY (FanDuel): 25/1

Long shots

Miami’s Owen Cassie (30/1) was acquired for Edward Cabrera this winter and gives the Marlins a much-needed power bat in their outfield, especially with Kyle Stowers opening the season on the injured list. Fellow Marlin farmhand Thomas White (100/1) posted a 2.31 ERA across 21 starts and reached Triple-A at 20 years old — his deceptive wind-up, plus his high-nineties heater could make him a factor at the back of their rotation. A dart-throw pick is the Rockies’ Zac Veen (N/A). He was one of the more hyped prospects entering 2025 before struggling at the big-league level. The outfielder put on over 40 pounds of muscle in the offseason while getting sober — his bat plays at Coors Field, and a bounceback could put him in the conversation.