Snow way. How’d we go from 3 inches to a blizzard warning overnight? We explain

What to Know

A blizzard warning has been issued for all five boroughs of New York City, Long Island and much of NJ; as a classic nor’easter threatens to dump heavy snow and strong winds on our area.
A blizzard warning is issued when snow accumulations are expected between 13 and 18 inches and winds are expected to gust as high as 55 mph. Whiteout conditions are expected.
We were looking at just 3 inches yesterday morning. Models shifted overnight.

We were still looking at about 3 inches for the New York City area this time yesterday. Now we’ve got a blizzard warning — a severe weather alert the city hasn’t seen in almost nine years.

A blizzard warning is issued when snow accumulations are expected between 13 and 18 inches and winds are expected to gust as high as 55 mph. This drops visibility below 1/4 mile due to blowing snow, and whiteout conditions are expected. Travel may be life-threatening. So, what changed since Friday morning?

Models that previously showed the system farther offshore (like the European model) moved, showing it hugging the coastline more. That is closer to the forecast predicted by the American model, which had been very aggressive on snow for a few days.

What the models looked like on Thursday

The storm comes as a result of an area of low pressure currently over California that will traverse the country and move off the North Carolina coast Sunday. As it moves into the Atlantic, the low will strengthen, and the tri-state area will pick up light to moderate snow and gusty northeast winds beginning Sunday afternoon.

Accumulations through Sunday afternoon will be relatively small. The heaviest snow happens after sunset Sunday and continues into early Monday before it begins to taper off.