President Donald Trump’s approval rating has sunk to a new low, with fresh polling showing historic weakness among independents as the Iran war and looming midterms reshape the political landscape.
White House spokesperson Davis Ingle told Newsweek in an emailed statement, “The ultimate poll was November 5, 2024, when nearly 80 million Americans overwhelmingly elected President Trump to deliver on his popular and commonsense agenda.”
Why It Matters
Trump is heading toward the midterm elections facing deep voter skepticism at a moment when the war with Iran has intensified political pressure.
Polling suggests that discontent among independents could complicate Republican efforts to hold power.
What To Know
A wave of new polling has delivered a consistent message: Trump’s approval rating is not just low, it is historically weak.
Speaking on CNN, chief data analyst Harry Enten said multiple surveys now point in the same direction, showing a president whose standing has steadily eroded over time.
“This has been a steady fall into the abyss,” he said.
Enten described the decline as long-running rather than tied to any single event.
While the conflict with Iran appears to have accelerated the drop, he said the slide began much earlier and has shown little sign of reversing.
Trump’s net approval rating, the number of those who approve of him minus those who disapprove, has fallen continuously since the start of his second term, Enten said, pointing to his own aggregate of polls.
After beginning the term with a net approval of plus six points, Trump’s rating slipped to minus three a year ago, then to minus seven nine months later.
By October 20, 2025, it had reached minus ten, before dropping to minus 13 in January 2026. The most recent figure puts him at minus 18 points, a new low for his second term.
Enten emphasized that even a rapid end to the Iran war would likely offer only limited relief.
The broader trend, he said, reflects a steady accumulation of political setbacks rather than a temporary shock.
He characterized the numbers as having “no bottom,” arguing that the pattern shows continued decline rather than volatility.
Second Term Slump Marks Sharp Break From First
Comparisons with Trump’s first term highlight how unusual the current trajectory is. At a similar point during his initial presidency, Trump’s approval rating was actually improving.
Three months into that period, his net approval was rising by about five points.
By contrast, the current three‑month trend shows a sharp fall to a new low.
“In term one, he was actually rising at this point. Now we’re talking about a three‑month change in which he has fallen to a new term two low,” Enten said.
At this stage in his first term, Trump’s net approval stood at minus 12 points. He is now six points lower than he was at the same point previously, underscoring how differently his second term has unfolded.
Enten noted that Trump eventually managed to stabilize and improve his numbers during term one, something he said has not happened so far this time.
The most striking weakness appears among independent voters. Enten called the numbers “eye‑popping,” pointing out that Trump now has the worst net approval rating among independents of any president at this point in a second term.
“If there’s one big number from this, it’s that Donald Trump now has the worst net approval rating among independents of any president ever at this point in term two,” Enten said.
His net rating with independents stands at minus 45 points.
That figure is worse than George W. Bush’s standing during the Iraq War and significantly lower than Richard Nixon’s numbers during the height of Watergate.
Enten noted that Trump’s rating is nearly ten points worse than Nixon’s among independents at a comparable moment in 1974, a comparison that underscores the scale of the decline.
The fallout may extend beyond Trump himself.
Enten suggested that the president’s weakness could affect other Republicans, particularly those closely associated with him.
He cited falling expectations around Vice President J.D. Vance’s chances of securing the Republican presidential nomination in 2028, pointing to a steady decline in prediction market odds.
What People Are Saying
Posting on X, Enten said: “A steady fall into the abyss for Trump’s net approval, as it falls into Death Valley. He’s now at a term 2 low: -18 pts.
“Big reason why: Independents. Trump’s at -45 pts.
“The worst for any president at this point in term 2. Worse than Nixon (-36 pts) at the height of Watergate!”
White House spokesperson Davis Ingle told Newsweek in an emailed statement: “The president has already made historic progress not only in America, but around the world. It is not surprising that President Trump remains the most dominant figure in American politics.”
A White House official previously told Newsweek: “Polling shows President Trump’s decision to launch Operation Epic Fury has Americans’ support—with MAGA and Republicans strongly supporting it. Despite some online commentators with large followings publicly disagreeing with the president’s decision—and many legacy media outlets eagerly highlighting their comments to try and sow division—the MAGA base is not wavering one bit.”
President Donald Trump said last month: “When this is over, oil prices are going to go down very, very rapidly. So is inflation. So is everything else. But frankly, much more important than short-term or even long-term oil prices: You cannot let the most violent, vicious country in the last 50 years have a nuclear weapon.”
Brett Loyd, a polling and research specialist for the Independent Center, previously told Newsweek: “It’s tough to win a national midterm when independents view your primary brand as a deal-breaker. That’s not to say Democrats are doing anything incredible to court the center; it’s just that Republicans are doing a remarkably efficient job of shedding them.”
What Happens Next
Attention is likely to shift to upcoming midterm races, where vulnerable Republicans will be watching independent voter sentiment closely.
Polling tied to the Iran conflict, economic conditions, and prediction markets is expected to remain a key barometer of how the political environment continues to evolve.
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