Israel now sees Iran’s survival as a real possibility

With the joint U.S.-Israeli war on Iran in its fifth week, approaching the end of one of President Donald Trump‘s projected timelines for the conflict, there has been little to indicate the Islamic Republic’s imminent capitulation despite suffering serious military setbacks and the loss of senior leadership.

And while Iran’s future remains uncertain, Israeli officials tell Newsweek the conflict could very well end with their enemy government surviving, creating frustrating narratives due to asymmetrical objectives and a slowing tempo of high-profile wins since the opening phases of the conflict.

“It’s important to accept that this Iranian regime, it’s a country 80 times the size of Israel, essentially half the size of Europe, an enormous country that built a big security establishment over decades, and right now they’re in a place where they would consider victory if they survive,” an Israeli military official told Newsweek.

They added: “And right now, the media is taking up that narrative and saying, ‘If they survived, that Israel and America lost,’ where I actually think that the fact that that’s where it is right now, a country 80 times the size of Israel that wanted to destroy us is considering if they’re able to survive and not be destroyed, that they beat us, at least for us, from the Israeli perspective, I think it shows a lot.”

The official also asserted that “we never put out as a military target to overthrow the regime,” but rather “to remove an existential threat, and that will also set the conditions for regime change if the Iranian people choose to do that.”

The result could see both parties walk away claiming victory.

“I think that there is a scenario in which this war ends in a situation where the Iranian regime believes that they won and they’re not lying, they’re being honest with themselves. And Israel and the U.S. believe they won, and they’re also not lying, they’re being honest with themselves,” the Israeli military official said.

They added: “We have military targets. We have already degraded them to an incredible level. Their goal right now is to survive, and if they do, they’re going to say they won. For us, being able to achieve a lot of the things we set out to achieve, I believe that we’re going to be able to finish this operation in a place achieving most of that.”

Down But Not Out

Iran has absorbed substantial blows since the beginning of the war, with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei slain on the first day of U.S.-Israeli strikes. Other top figures killed include leading Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders and Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani, believed to be Iran’s second in command, with new Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei absent from the public eye and reportedly wounded.

The Israeli military official said the attacks were having an effect on the Iranian armed forces’ capability and tactics.

“We’ve seen difficulty to collaborate to create barrages, low motivation. We’ve seen in our intelligence cases where commanders have to go out with their subordinates to shoot because they were scared to go out and shoot,” the official said. “We’ve seen them fire missiles from underneath bridges because they’re hiding, because they know we have an eye in the sky. We’ve seen the decrease in the amounts of missiles being fired all over the region, but we’ve also seen low motivation, and some cracks in their motivation to carry out offensive attacks.”

They continued: “Larijani was able to run the show, but the role of different military commanders has definitely gone up in the last 17-18 days, and more weight in the decision-making. There’s less of coordination between the different bodies, less of a cohesive leadership, and more decision-making by commanders. There is no head of the IRGC, as you know.”

The strikes have also had a substantial impact on missile capabilities, with between 75 to 80 percent of Iran’s long-range missile destroyed, according to Israeli Consul General in New York Ofir Akunis. He told Newsweek that “we achieved most of the main goals.”

Yet Iran continues to launch daily missile and drone strikes at Israel, as well as at Gulf Arab states hosting U.S. military bases, impacting global energy prices in a bid to drive up the costs of war now compounded by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint. The U.S. and Israel are also facing attacks from other factions of the Iran-led Axis of Resistance coalition, with the Islamic Resistance in Iraq and Lebanese Hezbollah movement operating against both parties, respectively.

As for who is leading Iran, Akunis said “it’s still the security forces, but actually they are getting weaker every day.” Still, he pointed out “it’s a process,” one taking place amid a “very fragile situation” with developments such as the potential entrance of Yemen’s Ansar Allah, also known as the Houthi movement, possibly looming on the horizon.

And while Akunis also saw some impact from the joint air campaign on the Iranian state’s stability, including assessed disorganization within military ranks believed to be penetrated by Israeli intelligence, he also argued, so far, “it’s not enough” to anticipate any immediate government collapse.

“Maybe the intelligence already sees something, but I can’t say that it’s something that will be a game changer, for now,” he said.

Popular Demand

Beyond the battlefield, Iranian officials continue to project strength in their rhetoric surrounding the war, with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi denying any attempts or desire to seek a ceasefire to a conflict launched in the midst of nuclear negotiations.

Statements issued in the name of Mojtaba Khamenei, who has yet to make a public appearance since succeeding his slain father nearly two weeks ago, have sought to rally Iranians behind the Islamic Republic, portraying the domestic front as particularly crucial.

“This kind of action and making it visible can be in itself a very desirable thing that increasingly strengthens the cohesion between the nation and the rulers,” a Nowruz address published by Khamenei’s office on Friday read. “At present, as a result of the incredible unity created among you, fellow citizens—despite all the differences of religious, intellectual, cultural and political origins—a breakdown is brought about in the enemy.”

Declaring this Persian New Year to bear the slogan “Resistance Economy in Light of National Unity and National Security,” he called on domestic media outlets to “seriously refrain from focusing on weaknesses, otherwise, it is possible for the enemy to reach its goal.”

Such internal threats manifested in January when protests over Iran’s ailing economy exploded into a nationwide series of demonstrations that included calls for the end of the Islamic Republic. The Iranian government, blaming foreign-backed infiltrators for provoking violence, ordered a severe crackdown that led to clashes producing an official death toll of more than 3,100 and human rights monitors abroad reporting ten times that figure.

Khamenei referred to the so-called “coup” attempt as the second of three wars Iran has faced this year, between the 12-Day War launched by Israel with U.S. support last June and the current conflict commenced by the two allies in tandem in late February. The bloodshed surrounding Iran’s suppression of dissent served as Trump’s initial pretext for the massive U.S. military build-up in the region and threats of direct intervention.

Since the start of the war, Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have voiced their desire to see new leadership in Iran, while at the same time indicating it would ultimately be up to the Iranian people themselves who topple the government.

“It is often said that you cannot do revolutions from the air. That is true,” Netanyahu told reporters Thursday. “You can’t do it only from the air. You can do a lot of things from the air, and we’re doing [them]. But there has to be a ground component as well. There are many possibilities for this ground component, and I take the liberty of not sharing with you all those possibilities.”

The Israeli premier also issued his own Nowruz message to the Iranian people, for whom he said his forces were “hitting the terror operatives on the grounds, in the crossroads, in the city squares.”

Akunis said Netanyahu and Trump were providing “the tools to the Iranian people to actually rebel, go out to the streets and find themselves in a new situation according to their new administration,” but reiterated that outcome could not be guaranteed.

“Maybe you’ll come again, around November, December 2026, and you will say to me, ‘Nothing happened there,’ and I will tell you that, ‘Unfortunately, the Iranian people did not rise up,'” he said. “I hope that they will.”

Boots Off the Ground

The prospect of yet another Iranian uprising taking place during or in the wake of a war is further complicated by segments of the population who oppose the Islamic Republic and foreign military intervention. Even some of those who heeded Trump’s call to remain in the streets with the promise of U.S. support “on the way” back in January ultimately felt betrayed when the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group only arrived in the region two weeks later, followed by nearly a month of nuclear talks before the war began.

Since the opening of the conflict, the Trump administration’s messaging on strategic objectives has been elusive and often fluid. Trump initially proposed a 4–5-week deadline and has over the past week indicated the war could end soon but only when he chose to do so.

The administration’s position on the fate of the Iranian government has also oscillated. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth early on affirmed “this is not a so-called regime change war,” while Trump has since expressed he should have a say in who leads a post-war Iran.

In a statement that fueled speculation over a potential land-based escalation to the conflict, Trump first welcomed reports of Iranian Kurdish forces to preparing to stage a U.S.-backed offensive against the Iranian government, only for the president to reject the idea, even as some groups have expressed willingness to participate.

Trump has issued conflicting opinions on the deployment of U.S. troops as well. Earlier this month, he said he did not “have the yips with respect to boots on the ground” and on Thursday told reporters he was “not putting troops anywhere”—though, “if I were, I certainly wouldn’t tell you.”

Reached for comment, a White House spokesperson referred Newsweek to the president’s Truth Social account, where Trump wrote Friday his administration was “very close to meeting our objectives as we consider winding down our great Military efforts in the Middle East with respect to the Terrorist Regime of Iran.”

He listed five aims, including “(1) Completely degrading Iranian Missile Capability, Launchers, and everything else pertaining to them. (2) Destroying Iran’s Defense Industrial Base. (3) Eliminating their Navy and Air Force, including Anti Aircraft Weaponry. (4) Never allowing Iran to get even close to Nuclear Capability, and always being in a position where the U.S.A. can quickly and powerfully react to such a situation, should it take place. (5) Protecting, at the highest level, our Middle Eastern Allies, including Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, and others.”

“The Hormuz Strait will have to be guarded and policed, as necessary, by other Nations who use it — The United States does not!” Trump wrote. “If asked, we will help these Countries in their Hormuz efforts, but it shouldn’t be necessary once Iran’s threat is eradicated. Importantly, it will be an easy Military Operation for them.”

Akunis said the potential for U.S. military presence in Iran was a matter for the Trump administration to discuss, yet he stated neither Israeli nor U.S. leadership was currently discussing efforts to provide direct military assistance to any parties on the ground in Iran. Echoing the Israeli military official, he explained that “this is not part of the goals of this operation, because they need to rise up, we can’t do it for them.”

He also acknowledged the potential danger that could emanate from such a decision on the part of the Iranian people, comparing it to past instances of revolutions largely without the use of arms.

“I can’t say that it’s not a risk, because it is a risk,” Akunis said. “But I want to remind you that the main revolutions in Eastern Europe, nobody used weapons, all over, and so, the regimes collapsed, all of them, like a domino effect. And then the people rose up to change what used to be the communist regimes over Poland, Hungary, Lithuania, the Czech Republic, and other places.”

“I’m not a prophet. I don’t know what the Iranian people will do,” Akunis added. “But I hope that they will do it.”