JD Vance’s approval rating plunges

Voters are turning colder on Vice President JD Vance, with a new CNN poll showing his approval sliding deeper into negative territory just months into a turbulent election year.

Newsweek contacted the White House via email for comment outside of regular working hours. 

Why It Matters

Public frustration is building as the administration faces an overseas war, rising domestic anxiety, and a looming midterm test. 

Those pressures also land on Vance as a potential 2028 contender now tied closely to the White House record.

What To Know

JD Vance’s standing with voters has weakened noticeably since the start of the year, according to two national polls conducted by CNN in partnership with SSRS.

In a survey conducted from January 9 to January 12, 2026, 41 percent of adults said they approved of how Vance was handling his job as vice president, while 58 percent disapproved. That put him 17 points underwater at the time.

That poll surveyed 1,209 adult Americans recruited through a probability-based panel. Results carried a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.

By late March, the numbers had moved further in the wrong direction.

A second CNN/SSRS poll conducted from March 26 to March 30 found Vance’s approval at 37 percent, with 62 percent disapproving. His net approval rating fell to minus 25, marking an eight-point net drop since January.

This poll was based on a random national sample of 1,201 adults and had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.

The direction of change is striking. Approval slipped four points, while disapproval climbed by the same amount over roughly two and a half months. 

Net support deteriorated even faster, suggesting not just softness among supporters but consolidation among critics.

The March survey landed as the administration grappled with fallout from the conflict with Iran, continued economic unease at home and intensifying scrutiny ahead of the 2026 midterms. 

As vice president, Vance has been a prominent public defender of White House policy, leaving little daylight between his profile and the broader administration agenda.

Speaking alongside the president in the Oval Office on March 17, Vance said the administration was confronting long‑standing challenges others had avoided, calling Iran “a problem that has festered in this country for far too long.”

He added that critics were trying to “drive a wedge” inside the White House, but stressed that he and the president had long shared the same red line, saying, “What the president said consistently going back to 2015, and I agreed with him, is that Iran should not have a nuclear weapon,” adding that the military action was taken “under the president’s leadership.”

Polling snapshots do not explain why individual voters disapprove, but the trend line shows erosion rather than stability. 

In early January, Vance was already underwater. By late March, his deficit had widened significantly, placing him closer to the lower end of approval ratings typically seen during politically difficult periods.

What Prediction Markets and Betting Odds Say

The polling slide also coincides with Vance’s chances of securing the GOP nominee to run for president in 2028 falling from 53 percent six months ago to 37 percent as of March 31, according to a leading prediction market cited on CNN. 

Traditional betting markets still place JD Vance among the front-runners for the 2028 presidential race, though the picture is increasingly competitive. 

Odds from Star Sports list Vance at 4/1, behind only Gavin Newsom at 7/2 overall, with Marco Rubio close at 7/1, suggesting bookmakers still see Vance as a leading contender despite recent political headwinds.

On the Democratic side, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is priced at 7/1 overall and as short as 15/8 within her party market, ahead of figures such as Josh Shapiro, Kamala Harris and Gretchen Whitmer, while longer odds for names like Tucker Carlson, Jon Ossoff and Michelle Obama reflect more speculative scenarios rather than firm expectations.

What People Are Saying 

Vice President JD Vance told USA Today in August last year: “Yes, terrible tragedies happen, but I feel very confident the president of the United States is in good shape, is going to serve out the remainder of his term and do great things for the American people.

“And if, God forbid, there’s a terrible tragedy, I can’t think of better on-the-job training than what I’ve gotten over the last 200 days.”

Speaking about Vance’s chances at securing the 2028 Republican nominee, CNN’s chief data analyst Harry Enten said: “Six months ago, he was at a 53 percent chance. Down he goes. He goes down to 37 percent, according to the Kalshi prediction market.” 

What Happens Next

Attention now turns to whether these numbers harden or rebound as the year unfolds. 

Upcoming congressional battles, foreign policy developments and the pace of economic news will shape how closely voters continue to associate Vance with outcomes they like—or dislike—well before the 2028 conversation fully begins.