A storm outlook from the National Weather Service’s (NWS) Storm Prediction Center on Thursday shows a noticeable shift in the expected tornado and severe thunderstorm corridor compared to projections made earlier in the week, tightening the focus on the Midwest and Ohio Valley as the atmosphere primes for potentially damaging storms.
The adjustment comes as meteorologists warn that conditions remain favorable for “very large hail,” damaging winds and a few tornadoes beginning late Thursday afternoon, with the threat extending into the evening. The updated outlook from the Storm Prediction Center shows an area of “enhanced risk” primarily over central Illinois, central and northern Indiana and the northern half of Ohio. Less severe slight and marginal risk areas fan outward into Missouri, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan and parts of Pennsylvania.
Above-average temperatures are once again in place across the region, with several records likely to be broken, which could fuel the incoming thunderstorms, NWS meteorologist Matt Barnes told Newsweek.
An “enhanced risk” is level three out of five. It indicates that numerous severe storms are possible, a more widespread storm impact area and potentially intense storms.
The slight shift comes a day after a similar map was issued by the NWS Storm Prediction Center that depicted a smaller “enhanced risk” area that didn’t extend as far into Ohio.
“Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley,” the Storm Prediction Center said in its Thursday outlook. “Large to very large hail, a few tornadoes, and severe/damaging winds all appear likely.”
Many other meteorologists have issued warnings for the people living within the highest risk area on Thursday.
“SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER is expected today across the Ohio Valley and Midwest! Very large hail (2″+), damaging winds (60-80 MPH) and a few tornadoes are possible, with a potential for a strong tornado or two,” meteorologist and content creator Max Velocity posted on X on Thursday. “Storms will fire up between 2-4pm as supercells, with the initial concern being very large hail and a strong tornado threat. Storms will upscale into a line of thunderstorms between 6-8pm, which will increase the damaging wind threat, and decrease the hail and tornado risk with time. A lingering supercell risk through 8-10pm, which could keep the tornado and hail risk elevated. We will be LIVE covering this severe weather threat later today.”
“GORILLA HAIL THREAT maximizes today from Peoria, Illinois through Toledo, Ohio this late afternoon and evening! We expect elevated supercells to erupt by 4-6 pm across northern Indiana and expand across the enhanced risk zone,” extreme meteorologist Reed Timmer posted. “Any dominant supercells that can steamroll southeast into the warm air will have a chance of a #tornado or two, especially around 7-9 pm. We are activating storm chase mode.”
There are no severe thunderstorm or tornado warnings or watches currently in place across the risk area, although several NWS offices in the area have issued a hazardous weather outlook for Thursday night.
“Thunderstorms are expected to begin developing by late afternoon, continuing through late evening. Some of these will be severe, with the greatest risk in areas from about Springfield and Peoria eastward,” NWS Lincoln, Illinois, said in one such alert. “Very large hail and damaging winds are the main concerns, though a few tornadoes are also possible into mid evening.”
“Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. Storms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail, and waterspouts,” NWS Cleveland said in similar messaging.
It has already been an active year for tornado development, with Storm Prediction Center reports revealing a total of 268 tornadoes so far this year. Most of the twisters have been in the Midwest, South and Southern Plains. There have been 11 tornado-related fatalities this year, the report said.
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