New Iran threat keeps tankers away from strait as ceasefire wavers

Despite expectations of a rush to exit the Persian Gulf after this week’s U.S.-Iran ceasefire, no tankers have passed through the Strait of Hormuz, according to shipping trackers, as uncertainty grows over whether the agreement will hold.

The deal is already under strain as both sides disagree on whether Lebanon is covered by the ceasefire. On the first day of the 14-day truce, Israel carried out a bombing raid in Lebanon—the largest yet in its campaign against Iran-backed Hezbollah.

Tehran responded by shutting down the strait, the world’s most critical energy chokepoint, through which about one-quarter of global seaborne oil trade and roughly one-fifth of liquefied natural gas supplies pass during peacetime.

Newsweek reached out to the Iranian Foreign Ministry via email for comment.

Hundreds of vessels are stranded in the Persian Gulf, and no tanker has transited the strait into the Gulf of Oman since the ceasefire took effect, according to shipping analytics firm Kpler—down from an average of 138 ships per day before the conflict.

Just three ships were tracked sailing through the strait since the deal was announced early Wednesday, all with links to Iran, according to an analysis of ship tracking data by Lloyd’s List Intelligence, while another three appear to be preparing to transit or heading toward a Tehran-approved transit route around Larak Island in Iranian waters. It’s unclear whether any of the ships are tankers.

An estimated 1.0 million metric tons of liquefied natural gas are stored across 14 tankers trapped in the Persian Gulf, Kpler wrote.

Iran recently began a vetting system under which ships deemed non-hostile were allowed to pass through its waters, with some companies reportedly paying transit fees. The system had been expected to continue under the 10-point ceasefire framework forming the basis of negotiations with Washington.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed retribution for the attacks on Iran and said management of the strait would enter “a new phase,” according to a statement carried by Iranian state television and reported by Reuters.

All U.S. forces in the region will remain in place until a “real agreement is reached,” U.S. President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social. Otherwise, the “shootin’ starts—bigger, and better, and stronger than anyone has ever seen before,” he wrote.

On Tuesday, the United Nations Security Council voted on a draft resolution encouraging states with commercial interests in the strait to coordinate efforts to protect navigation and demanding that Iran refrain from further attacks on shipping. China and Russia vetoed the measure.

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center reported no incidents in the Arabian Gulf, Gulf of Oman or Strait of Hormuz for the second consecutive day on Thursday.

Iran, like Pakistan, which helped broker the ceasefire, insists Lebanon is covered by the deal. At least 254 people were killed and more than 1,100 injured in the Israeli strikes, Lebanese health authorities said. U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres condemned the attacks “unequivocally,” warning that continued violence could jeopardize the ceasefire and wider peace efforts.