Oklahoma City Thunder star guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has a clear runway to a second straight NBA MVP award. The NBA’s 65-game rule has played a major role in that shift. As a result, with injuries eliminating key contenders, Gilgeous-Alexander’s odds now sit at -2000, per BetMGM. That gap is significant, with the next closest rival, San Antonio Spurs center Victor Wembanyama, at +850.
With roughly a week left in the regular season, a race that once felt competitive now feels like a foregone conclusion. Originally, the rule was designed to promote competition. However, it now penalizes top players for circumstances outside their control.
Injuries Clear the Field for SGA
Over the past few weeks, injuries have reshaped the MVP race. In particular, several of the league’s top players have missed critical time.
In Thursday’s blowout loss to the Thunder, the Los Angeles Lakers lost Luka Doncic to a Grade 2 left hamstring strain. As a result, he will miss the rest of the regular season and possibly part of the playoffs. Doncic has played 64 games, leaving him one short of eligibility. At this point, a pending appeal remains his only path back into the race.
Similarly, Detroit Pistons star Cade Cunningham had built a strong MVP case. He helped lead Detroit to the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference. But now, a collapsed lung will sideline him through the end of the regular season. Cunningham finishes with 61 games played, making him ineligible. With that, the field has narrowed quickly.
Even before these injuries, separation had already formed. ESPN’s final MVP straw poll showed Gilgeous-Alexander dominating with 88 first-place votes. Wembanyama finished second, while Nikola Jokic, Doncic, and Jaylen Brown rounded out the top five. Notably, none of them carried real momentum into the final stretch. Now, what once looked like a layered race has turned into a one-player runway.
Rule vs. Reality
The NBA introduced the 65-game rule to limit load management and increase player availability. On paper, the intent made sense. In reality, the result has been different.
The rule has shifted the MVP conversation away from value and toward eligibility. Consequently, it has flattened what should have been a competitive race.
This does not diminish Gilgeous-Alexander’s case. In fact, he has fully earned this position. Through 65 games, he is averaging 31.6 points, 6.5 assists, and 4.4 rebounds while shooting over 55 percent from the field. In addition, he has led the Thunder to a 61–16 record, the best in the Western Conference.
Still, the broader context matters. The lack of flexibility within the rule has removed legitimate challengers. Because of that, what once had the potential for a photo finish now feels decided. With less than 10 days remaining, Gilgeous-Alexander stands as the clear and unopposed frontrunner for MVP.
About the Author
Discover more from USA NEWS
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
