Texas Spring Weather Outlook Released: What to Expect Across the State

The latest spring weather outlook for Texas is in — and it points to a season shaped by warmer temperatures and the potential for active storms.

The forecast, released by the National Weather Service and the Climate Prediction Center, outlines what Texans can expect from March through May.

For a state known for volatile spring weather, the outlook matters. It helps cities, farmers, emergency managers and families prepare for heat swings, severe thunderstorms and shifting rainfall patterns.

This year’s projection suggests above-average temperatures across much of Texas, along with varying rainfall expectations depending on the region.

Key Spring Forecast Details for Texas

What the Texas Spring Weather Outlook Shows

According to the Climate Prediction Center, much of Texas has an increased probability of above-normal temperatures this spring.

That means more days with highs running warmer than historical averages.

“Spring in Texas is a transition season, but the odds favor warmer conditions overall,” a meteorologist with the National Weather Service said during a seasonal briefing.

Warmer patterns can influence everything from energy demand to drought conditions.

Rainfall projections are less uniform.

Some parts of the state show equal chances of above-, near- or below-average precipitation, while others lean drier.

Why Texas Spring Weather Matters

Spring is typically one of the most active weather seasons in Texas.

It’s when cold fronts collide with warm Gulf moisture, creating conditions ripe for thunderstorms.

Large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes are most common from April into early June, particularly across North and Central Texas.

“Texas sees some of its most significant severe weather in the spring months,” a National Weather Service forecaster said. “Preparation ahead of time makes a difference.”

For farmers, rainfall timing is critical.

For urban areas, heavy downpours can overwhelm drainage systems and lead to flash flooding.

Timeline: What to Expect Month by Month

March

Early spring often brings temperature swings.

Cold fronts may still push through, but warmer afternoons become more frequent.

Storm chances begin increasing toward the end of the month.

April

Historically one of the most active severe weather months in Texas.

Thunderstorms become more widespread, and hail events are more common.

If temperatures trend above average, instability in the atmosphere could increase on certain days.

May

Severe weather risk often peaks in May, especially across North Texas.

Heavy rain events can also occur, particularly in eastern parts of the state.

By late May, early summer heat sometimes begins building across South and West Texas.

Regional Breakdown: North, Central, East and West Texas

North Texas:
Warmer-than-average temperatures are favored. Severe storm potential increases in April and May.

Central Texas:
Similar temperature outlook. Rainfall signals remain uncertain, with equal chances of above- or below-normal precipitation.

East Texas:
Storms fueled by Gulf moisture are common in spring. Flooding can occur during prolonged rain events.

West Texas:
Warmer and often drier patterns are typical. Wind events and wildfire risk can increase if rainfall is limited.

Drought and Water Supply Considerations

Parts of Texas have experienced fluctuating drought conditions in recent seasons.

A warmer spring without consistent rainfall could intensify dryness in some areas.

State climatologists monitor soil moisture, reservoir levels and rainfall totals closely.

“Spring rainfall plays a big role in how we head into summer,” a state climate expert said. “If it’s dry, that sets the stage for hotter conditions later.”

Water planners use seasonal outlooks to guide conservation messaging and reservoir management decisions.

Public Reaction and Preparedness

Many Texans are familiar with spring’s unpredictability.

Hardware stores often see increased demand for storm supplies during peak severe weather season.

Emergency management agencies encourage residents to review safety plans before storm season ramps up.

That includes identifying safe shelter locations and ensuring weather alerts are enabled on mobile devices.

While seasonal outlooks do not predict specific storm days, they provide a broader sense of what’s more likely.

What Happens Next?

The spring outlook offers probabilities, not guarantees.

Weather patterns can shift depending on atmospheric changes, including Pacific Ocean influences and Gulf moisture levels.

Forecasters will issue more detailed short-term predictions as individual storm systems develop.

Residents are encouraged to monitor local forecasts, especially during active weather days.

Another updated seasonal outlook will be released later in the year, refining expectations as new data becomes available.

Frequently Asked Questions About the Texas Spring Forecast

Will Texas be warmer than normal this spring?
The outlook favors above-average temperatures across much of the state.

Is severe weather expected?
Spring is typically Texas’ most active severe weather season, especially in April and May.

Will there be more rain?
Rainfall projections vary by region, with some areas showing equal chances of above- or below-normal precipitation.

Does this mean more tornadoes?
The outlook does not predict specific tornado numbers, only general conditions that could support storms.

How reliable are seasonal forecasts?
They show probabilities based on climate patterns but cannot predict exact daily weather.

What should residents do now?
Review severe weather plans and stay updated with local forecasts as spring progresses.

Conclusion

The newly released Texas spring weather outlook points toward warmer-than-average temperatures statewide and the potential for active severe weather as the season unfolds.

While rainfall projections remain mixed, the months ahead are historically known for strong storms and rapid weather shifts.

Texans should watch for updated forecasts as March, April and May approach, especially during peak severe weather periods.