The National Weather Service’s (NWS) Weather Prediction Center (WPC) warned strong to severe thunderstorms with heavy downpours were expected across parts of the Southern and Central Plains, with the severe threat persisting over central Texas into Monday.
The WPC said large to very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes and flash flooding are also possible.
Why It Matters
Central Texas’ Hill Country has a documented history of flash flooding that can escalate within minutes, particularly along the Guadalupe River corridor.
On July 4, 2025, rapidly rising waters along the Guadalupe caused catastrophic damage and mass casualties, with at least 129 people reported dead and 166 missing in the immediate aftermath. The death toll also includes 27 campers, two counsels and the director of Camp Mystic, a Christian summer camp for girls on the Guadalupe River.
What To Know
The WPC said severe thunderstorms with heavy downpours were forecast to affect the Southern and Central Plains Sunday night, with a continued severe weather threat over central Texas on Monday as a low-pressure wave tracks along a frontal boundary.
Multiple counties have already activated their emergency management agencies, ahead of the possible flash flooding, including the Guadalupe and Gonzales counties, which sit just east of San Antonio.
Authorities have issued warnings, urging people to “be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads,” adding, “Stay away or be swept away. Riverbanks and culverts can become unstable and unsafe.”
Officials in Kerr County, where the deadly floods occurred last July, said there was a stronger threat of storms and “the possibility of flooding where rainfall rates exceed 2″ per hour.”
“This patten will continue through early next week, so please stay weather aware!” a post from the county said on Facebook Sunday.
Camp Mystic Deaths Remain Under Scrutiny
During last year’s Hill Country flood, the Guadalupe River rose with extraordinary speed overnight, sweeping away homes, camp cabins and vehicles.
Authorities documented that water levels surged quickly along the river’s forks before daylight, overwhelming response efforts and leaving communities from Hunt to Kerrville devastated.
State officials and media timelines recorded multiple flash flood warnings, including a rare flash flood emergency, as the crisis escalated.
Earlier this month, the Texas Department of Public Safety confirmed the Texas Rangers were assisting the Department of State Health Services in an investigation regarding complaints of neglect at Camp Mystic.
Former Bexar County District Attorney Nico LaHood said the Rangers’ involvement signaled a criminal investigation, and he outlined potential legal exposure related to injury to or endangering a child, depending on findings.
What People Are Saying
The NWS said in an advisory shared by the Guadalupe County Emergency Management on Facebook: “There is a potential for LIFE-THREATENING flooding somewhere in the watch area. Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.”
NWS WPC’s short-range discussion said Sunday: “Large to very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes are possible. The severe weather and heavy rain threats will then head east across the Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes Monday night into Tuesday morning.”
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