NFL teams can begin contract negotiations with free agents during what the league calls its “legal tampering window” ahead of the start of its new business year Wednesday at 4 p.m. ET. Recent history says most of the largest free-agent deals will be agreed to and reported Monday afternoon, perhaps in a matter of minutes. Will the Patriots break the bank again?
A year after guaranteeing more than $192 million in fresh contracts, the Pats do not intend to set more spending records this week. But free agency doesn’t always go as planned.
A year ago, the Patriots were forced to repeatedly raise their offer in a bidding war with Carolina over defensive tackle Milton Williams. They ultimately landed Williams, who at that time had yet to play more than half of his team’s defensive snaps in a single season, for $104 million, the second-most ever handed to a defensive tackle. This year, the Pats have ample cap room — roughly $43 million, 10th-most in the league — to absorb a high-priced player or two if they enter another bidding war.
This time, the name to know is Alec Pierce. As of late Sunday night, Pierce had yet to re-sign with Indianapolis, where the Colts want to retain him, the NFL’s league leader in yards per catch. Pierce is a 25-year-old big-play machine with elite speed, a 6-foot-3 frame and one 1,000-yard season over his four years in the NFL.
But there’s more to the Patriots’ plans than the wide receiver market.
Here’s what to watch for this week in free agency:
No. 1 receiver dilemma
The latest reporting suggests Pierce could push for $30 million per year, which would make him one of the NFL’s eight highest-paid receivers by average annual value. League rumblings suggest the Patriots will be in for at least $27 million annually, though it’s unclear how much they are willing to guarantee and whether that number is competitive relative to Pierce’s other reported suitors. Those, according to ESPN, include Washington, Las Vegas and Tennessee.
If the Pats aren’t willing to go all-out for Pierce, a la Williams, the only other No. 1 receiver known to be available is A.J. Brown. The Pats have explored trading for Brown, though the Eagles’ asking price was unserious a week ago, according to team sources. Reportedly, it’s a first-round pick and a second-round pick, though there may be posturing on Philadelphia’s part.
If the Patriots continue to balk, they can at least wait until the summer when trading Brown will inflict less financial pain for the Eagles, who would lose $20 million in cap space if they deal him this week. The trouble is, everyone then will know the Patriots still need a No. 1 receiver if they miss on Pierce, which would tilt negotiations back toward Philadelphia.
Brown is indisputably the better player, so the question for the Patriots becomes: would you rather overpay Pierce on a potentially ridiculous contract or add the more proven, productive and dangerous Brown at a much higher price?
Edge rusher market
The good news for the Patriots is if they lose K’Lavon Chaisson, far and away their most dangerous edge rusher by the end of the season, there are several quality replacements available.
The bad news is, whether it’s Trey Hendrickson, Jaelan Phillips, Odafe Oweh or Boye Mafe, they’ll have competition and a heavy price to pay.
Last month, league sources expected the Patriots to target the second tier of edge rushers, which would rule out Hendrickson, Phillips and Oweh. In addition to Mafe — a well-rounded Seahawks rusher who averaged close to 50 pressures per season the last three years — there’s Cincinnati’s Joseph Ossai, 2021 Colts first-round pick Kwity Paye, 2022 Falcons second-rounder Arnold Ebiketie and older rushers like Joey Bosa and Bradley Chubb. Ebikitie and Paye appear best suited for rotational pass-rushing roles, just as Chaisson was a year ago. Chaisson might also return, though his market, even as a player who historically has struggled mightily in run defense, could exceed $12 million annually.
Speaking of the Patriots’ internal free agents …
Who stays?
Jaylinn Hawkins said after the Patriots lost Super Bowl LX that he hoped to stay in New England.
Chaisson has said similar. So has defensive tackle Khyiris Tonga.
But will the Pats pay up? And if not, would they be willing to take a pay cut?The answers differ in each case, including other players like backup tight end Austin Hooper. Hawkins appears most likely to stay, given his apparently depressed market, per league sources at the NFL Scouting Combine, and desire to stay. Chaisson should cash in, and Tonga might, too, considering how few quality defensive tackles are available in the free agency and the draft. Even if the Patriots came close to retaining him on an extension, Tonga’s price tag has since risen.
And if he doesn’t return, the Pats can add defensive tackle depth to their list of needs below wide receiver, edge rusher and left guard.
Wild card signings
Every year, there’s usually one.
A player or position the Patriots prioritize that was glossed over by the football-watching public. Who and what could it be this year?
Start in the backfield, where Jack Westover did a middling to poor job as a tight end turned fullback last season. Baltimore fullback Patrick Ricard and Buffalo’s Reggie Gilliam are both set to hit the market. And what about linebacker?
The Patriots are content with Robert Spillane and Christian Elliss, but questions linger behind them, especially if restricted free agent Jack Gibbens isn’t tendered. And don’t forget cornerback, where Christian Gonzalez should soon receive a massive extension, but depth behind him, Carlton Davis and Marcus Jones, appears scarce.
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