‘Becerra Bounce.’ How Xavier Becerra surged from behind to be a frontrunner in governor’s race

With less than two months to go before the primary election, one gubernatorial candidate is standing out with a surge in the polls: Xavier Becerra, former California attorney general and former Health and Human Services secretary for the Biden administration, has gone from getting calls to leave the race to becoming one of the Democratic frontrunners.

Since Rep. Eric Swalwell dropped out of the race amid sexual misconduct and assault allegations, the polls showed Becerra could be this primary election’s comeback kid: An April 17 poll by the California Democratic Party has Becerra at 13%, up from 4% two weeks prior.

Another poll from Emerson College showed Becerra at 10% as of April 16, up from 3% in march. Tom Steyer was leading among the Democrats at 14% while Katie Porter and Becerra tied at second place among Democratic candidates.

“These votes didn’t go in a bunch of different directions. They shifted entirely over to Becerra,” Mike Madrid, political strategist, told NBCLA. “You’re seeing the consolidation of a working class base in the Democratic Party that is sort of pushing back against the establishment.”

Madrid, who recently traveled from Sacramento to LA as part of his series on the “Latino Vote,” said he learned a more diverse group than he’d expected at the Becerra rally he attended.

“They reached out after seeing stuff on social media, and then they contacted the campaign,” Madrid said. “There was also kind of a discernible group that was basically saying, ‘I haven’t quite decided yet who I’m with, but I want to learn more, and I like what I’m hearing.'”

But California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks, who had pleaded with candidates with no viable path forward to drop out of the race to avoid having two Republican candidates in the November run-off, said this week that he still believes there are too many Democrats in the field. With or without Becerra’s surge, Republicans Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco were still leading in the polls.

“My call for candidates to honestly assess the viability of their candidacy and campaigns still stands, especially if you are stalled in the single digits,” Hicks said.

Had Becerra listened to Hicks, he would not have seen the big turnaround, said Madrid.

“In just five days, (Becerra) is now the front runner. That’s why we have campaigns,” the political strategist said. “I think that the Democratic Party should be focused not on pushing candidates out but bringing voters into the process.”

When former California Controller Betty Yee suspended her gubernatorial campaign earlier this week, she endorsed Steyer. It remains to be seen whether Yee’s support would move the needle for Steyer or anyone else.

If Becerra, a Sacramento native born to Mexican immigrant parents, pulls off a stunning upset and becomes the governor, he would be the first Latino to serve as California governor in modern history.