Zack Wheeler’s encouraging return helps Phillies halt slide, by the numbers

ATLANTA — It was exactly what the Phillies had hoped for. Zack Wheeler is back, healthy and already helping in the win column.

The Phillies needed the lift badly. The history books in South Philadelphia had been getting too much use lately, and for all the wrong reasons.

Their ace helped stop that on Saturday night, turning in a strong five-inning, two-run, six-strikeout outing against his hometown Braves in the Phillies’ 8-4 victory over Atlanta, their first win since April 13.

A major question surrounding Wheeler’s recovery from thoracic outlet decompression surgery was whether his velocity would take a steep enough hit to affect the level of dominance that led to two runner-up finishes in National League Cy Young Award voting since he signed with the Phillies before the 2020 season.

At Truist Park in his season debut, it was hard to see much reason for concern.

Wheeler opened by striking out Ronald Acuña Jr. and Drake Baldwin. He got Acuña swinging with a 96.5 mph fastball up and away, then got Baldwin to chase a sharp curve after getting ahead with a 95 mph heater.

Wheeler threw eight pitches above 95 mph in the first inning and only three the rest of the night. That looked like understandable adrenaline from a pitcher throwing his first big league pitch since Aug. 15 of last year. Either way, it was a good reminder that the velocity is still in there.

And it was not just the radar gun that stood out.

WHEELS AHEAD

What should keep Zack Wheeler effective on the back end of his career — whether the top-end velocity fully returns or not — is his command, both with the four-seam fastball and with the rest of his mix.

He used all of it to get ahead Saturday. Wheeler posted a 70 percent first-pitch strike rate. For context, he finished at 61.1 percent last year.

The tone-setter early was the four-seamer. He opened 11 counts with it and landed nine for strikes. That lets him open up the full six-pitch mix once he gets ahead.

And that is what allows Wheeler to dictate at-bats instead of reacting to them.

THE CHASE

That was one of the most encouraging parts of Wheeler’s outing, even with the rocky two-run fourth.

The Phillies’ right-hander generated a ton of swings outside the zone. All six of his pitches finished with at least a 20 percent chase rate. By the end of the outing, his overall chase rate sat at 44 percent.

Wheeler’s highest chase rate over a full season came in 2024, when he finished in the 95th percentile at 33.8 percent. Against an Atlanta lineup that featured five hitters with an OPS north of .850 — not including Acuña — that was a strong sign.

It is also another reason Wheeler should remain effective deep into his career.

SWEEPER SWEEPIN’

The pitch is already becoming another Phillies calling card under pitching coach Caleb Cotham.

Of Wheeler’s non-fastballs Saturday — including the sinker and cutter — the sweeper was the one he threw most, at 14 percent.

It had noticeably more bite, and the numbers backed that up. The pitch spun at 2,791 rpm, a jump of 122 rpm from last season. Against right-handed hitters, it also showed a 7-inch increase in drop compared to his 2025 average, according to Statcast.

Since Wheeler introduced the pitch in 2023, he has thrown it at least 12 percent of the time every season, and opponents have never hit better than .200 against it.

It was not a pitch he landed consistently in the zone Saturday — its strike rate was just 42 percent — but that almost made it more interesting. If it keeps that kind of action and becomes more tempting for hitters to chase, it could be even sharper as his starts build up.

THE BALL BOUNCED THE PHILLIES’ WAY

After the hour-long rain delay, the Phillies’ offense got off to a quick start, and Atlanta’s defense helped.

In the first inning, Adolis García lined a sinker in front of Mike Yastrzemski in left. Yastrzemski dove, the ball got past him, and García wound up at third with a run-scoring triple. The slide into third was unnecessary with two outs and just a runner on first, but the Phillies took the gift.

Then, in the eighth, with the Phillies trailing 4-3, Kyle Schwarber lifted a ball to center. Braves center fielder Eli White stumbled, the ball got away, and Schwarber cruised into third with another triple. There were no outs. On the very next pitch, Bryce Harper tied the game with a sacrifice fly.

The Phillies entered the night with the second-lowest batting average on balls in play in baseball at .257. If that holds, it would be their lowest BABIP in 86 years, since the 1940 Phillies posted a .254 mark.

For one night, at least, a little good fortune showed up. 

The game was pushed to extras and Harper delivered a two-run single to give the Phillies the lead, 6-4. Then, Brandon Marsh delivered a two-run hit of his own, 8-4.

Coming into the night, since April 14, the Phillies were batting .100 with runners in scoring position. They were 3-for-11 in the victory. A step in the right direction.

The 10-game losing streak is over, ladies and gentlemen.