Could your birthday predict your success as an Olympian? This professor says it might

You’ve probably heard theories that things like zodiac signs and birth order play a role in your personality, relationships and interests. But what if your birthday predicted whether or not you made it to the Olympic podium?

This question was what motivated Tia Hilmer, a professor of Economics at San Diego State University in California, to crunch some numbers with her husband.

They analyzed data from 10 Olympic Games (both summer and winter) held between 2000 and 2018, using equations to study the birth dates of more than 4,400 Olympic medalists who competed in individual events.

Their results showed an interesting pattern.

According to Hilmer’s findings, athletes in her sample who were born in the first quarter of the year (Jan. 1-March 31) were more likely to be medalists than athletes born in the fourth quarter (Oct. 1-Dec. 31).

Further, she said those who won gold were more likely to be born in the first half of the year.

But why would birth date be an influence on success at the highest athletic level?

Hilmer speculates that it comes down to age, theorizing that kids who are older within their sport’s age group (youth sports often divide programs into age spans of one to two years) actually have a slight edge. She says this difference early on can lead to better coaching, better teams and more chances to develop as an athlete.

Hilmer’s research also found that age shows up differently depending on sport, particularly in the Winter Olympics.

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“What we found was that relative to timed events, those in judged events are 4.5 years younger, and those in endurance events are 2.5 years older,” Hilmer said.

While certainly interesting, it’s important to note that Hilmer’s studies only looked at medalists, meaning the still-exceptional athletes who got fourth, fifth and sixth place in Olympic events could widen the range of birthdays.

“Just because somebody is born in the last quarter of the year, does not necessarily mean they’re not going to win gold and not make the Olympic team,” Hilmer said.

All in all, Hilmer’s findings are probably not something to plan a pregnancy around if you’re hoping to have a future Olympian in your family. But just like astrology, it’s definitely fun to think about.

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