President Donald Trump has recorded a series of weak polling moments in early 2026, including among independents, key religious voters, and on the economy.
These results come as the White House moves deeper into a midterm year, when opinions tend to harden rather than reset.
Independents, swing voters, and parts of Trump’s traditional base—all crucial to Republican prospects in November—are increasingly negative.
White House spokesman Davis Ingle told Newsweek in an emailed statement: “The ultimate poll was November 5, 2024, when nearly 80 million Americans overwhelmingly elected President Trump to deliver on his popular and commonsense agenda.
“No other president in history has accomplished more for the American people than President Trump, who is working tirelessly to create jobs, cool inflation, increase housing affordability, and more. The president has already made historic progress not only in America but around the world, and this is just the beginning as his agenda continues taking effect.”
Why It Matters
Presidents often rely on major events, speeches, or economic narratives to stabilize public opinion. This year, Trump has repeatedly failed to secure those boosts, leaving him underwater across much of the electorate.
No Rally After Maduro Capture
Trump’s approval ratings showed little movement after U.S. forces captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro on January 3, despite the operation’s dramatic nature.
Three major polling firms—Reuters/Ipsos, YouGov/The Economist, and Rasmussen Reports—found Trump remained net‑negative before and after the event, with no sustained public rally.
A Reuters/Ipsos survey conducted January 4–5 among 1,248 U.S. adults found Trump’s approval rose from 39 percent in December to 42 percent in early January, his highest since October 2025, though disapproval still outweighed approval. The poll carried a margin of error of about 3 percentage points.
Economist/YouGov polling told a flatter story. Surveys conducted around the capture date showed approval holding at 39 percent and disapproval at 56 percent, unchanged from late December. The January 2–5 wave surveyed 1,551 U.S. adult citizens online and had a margin of error of roughly plus or minus 3 percent.
Rasmussen’s daily tracking showed only marginal movement. Trump registered 44 percent approval and 54 percent disapproval on January 6, similar to late‑December readings. Rasmussen’s five‑day rolling average combines nightly interviews with 300 likely voters, with a full‑sample margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 points.
Independents Turn Sharply Against Trump
Independent voters have moved decisively away from Trump over his second term. In late January 2025, an Economist/YouGov poll showed independents close to evenly split, with 41 percent approving and 45 percent disapproving, leaving Trump four points underwater.
By February 2026, that balance had collapsed. A new Economist/YouGov survey found just 25 percent of independents approved of Trump’s performance, while 66 percent disapproved, producing a net approval rating of –41. The 37‑point shift marks a steep and unusually rapid erosion for a group that often swings late.
The January 2025 poll was conducted January 26–28 among 1,577 U.S. adult citizens using online interviews weighted for demographics and voting history, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percent.
And the February 2026 poll surveyed 1,551 adult citizens from February 20–23 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percent, allowing for direct comparison.
Core Religious Group Support Flips Negative
Trump’s standing among Christian voters slipped into negative territory for the first time in a Fox News assessment.
A Fox News national poll conducted March 20–23 surveyed 1,001 registered voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points. Participants were drawn from a national voter file and interviewed by phone or online.
Among Catholics, 48 percent approved of Trump’s job performance and 52 percent disapproved, reversing a small net positive seen just weeks earlier.
In the prior Fox News poll, conducted February 28–March 2 among 1,004 registered voters, Catholics approved by a 52–48 margin, with the same plus or minus 3‑point margin of error.
A similar shift appeared among Protestants. Approval fell from an even split to 47 percent approve and 53 percent disapprove. White evangelicals stood apart, with approval rising from 60 percent to 64 percent over the same period.
Trump Trails Biden on the Economy
Trump’s approval on the economy has declined sharply, according to the Harvard CAPS/Harris poll. Economic approval fell from 49 percent in February 2025 to 40 percent in March 2026, including a five‑point drop since February.
The survey also found that 51 percent of respondents believe Trump was doing a worse job than former President Joe Biden overall, compared with 49 percent who said he was doing better.
Just 32 percent said the economy was on the right track, while 59 percent said it was shrinking.
The poll was conducted March 25–26 among 2,009 registered voters and carried a margin of error of plus or minus 1.99 percentage points.
Separately, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found just 29 percent approved of Trump’s handling of the economy, the lowest economic approval rating of either of his presidential terms.
Nate Silver Warns Trump Is in ‘Uncharted Territory’
Polling analyst Nate Silver said Trump’s approval rating has entered “uncharted territory,” reaching a new low in his aggregated tracker. Silver reported Trump’s net approval across all voters at –15.3 percent, the weakest point recorded in his model.
The decline is driven by near‑universal Democratic opposition and deepening disapproval among independents, even as Trump’s core supporters remain largely intact.
Silver’s tracker combines all available polls—adults, registered voters, and likely voters—weighted by sample size, recency, pollster reliability, and adjusted for systematic house effects.
Trump’s State of the Union Backfires
Trump’s 2026 State of the Union address drew the weakest reaction of any such speech this century, according to an instant poll.
A CNN snap poll conducted immediately after the address found just 38 percent of viewers described it as “very positive,” while 36 percent rated it negative, an unusually narrow gap for a speech that typically energizes supporters.
CNN’s political director, David Chalian, cautioned that the survey reflected speech‑watchers, a group about 13 points more Republican than the general population.
Even so, enthusiasm was notably thin, with Trump’s “very positive” score continuing a steady decline from prior years. Ahead of the address, a CNN/SSRS poll conducted February 17–20 among 2,496 adults found Trump’s overall approval at 36 percent and disapproval at 63 percent, leaving him 27 points underwater.
The poll carried a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.
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