Illinois Democrats, including Representative Raja Krishnamoorthi, Lieutenant Governor Juliana Stratton and Representative Robin Kelly, are facing off in the coming weeks to replace one of the most powerful Democrats in the Senate.
Why It Matters
The Illinois primary is just weeks away. Democratic Senator Dick Durbin, who serves in leadership as the whip, opted not to run for reelection, leaving a seat open in a reliably blue state. Numerous candidates are running, but Krishnamoorthi, Stratton, and Kelly are the most prominent. Whoever wins the primary would be strongly favored to win the general election in November.
What To Know
Krishnamoorthi, who represents a suburban Chicago congressional district, has been the frontrunner in polls, followed by Stratton. Kelly has generally polled behind both candidates in recent surveys.
Campaign finance has become a major topic in the race. Krishnamoorthi has been a strong fundraiser, allowing him to invest significantly in advertisements in the race. Capitol News Illinois reported in October that he was spending around $450,000 per week on TV ads, bolstering his name recognition across the state.
But Stratton has the support of Governor JB Pritzker, a billionaire who has contributed $5 million to a PAC supporting her campaign, NBC News reported.
The latest poll showed a tight race between Krishnamoorthi and Stratton.
The Public Policy Polling survey, sponsored by the Democratic Lieutenant Governors Association, showed Krishnamoorthi with a two-point lead over Stratton (29 percent to 27 percent). It noted a shift from earlier in February, when Krishnamoorthi led by 11 points (34 percent to 23 percent).
Notably, 31 percent of respondents were still undecided. Thirteen percent said they would vote for Kelly.
It surveyed 546 likely voters from February 23-24, 2026 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.
A Tulchin Research poll showed Krishnamoorthi with a stronger 16-point lead (42 percent to 26 percent), while 10 percent said they were supporting Kelly. Sixteen percent were undecided. It surveyed 600 likely voters from February 14-19, 2026.
A GBAO poll sponsored by Krishnamoorthi’s campaign showed him with 43 percent support, compared to Stratton’s 17 percent and Kelly’s 13 percent. Seventeen percent of respondents were still undecided. The poll surveyed 800 likely voters from January 25-28, 2026 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
Kalshi betting odds favor Krishnamoorthi, giving him a 57 percent chance of winning. Stratton, meanwhile, has a 42 percent chance of victory in the primary.
Who Is Raja Krishnamoorthi?
Krishnamoorthi has represented Illinois’ 8th Congressional District since 2017. He was born in New Delhi in 1973 and immigrated to the United States as an infant, being raised in Peoria, Illinois.
His early career included clerking for a federal judge, serving as a special assistant attorney general in Illinois, and working on Barack Obama’s 2004 Senate campaign. He later served as Illinois deputy treasurer and led several technology-focused small businesses before entering Congress.
Who Is Juliana Stratton?
Stratton was first elected in 2018 on a ticket with Pritzker. She was born in Chicago in 1965 and grew up on the South Side, according to her campaign website. She worked as a lawyer and consultant before her election to the Illinois House of Representatives in 2016.
She is seen as the more progressive option in the race, supporting policies like a $25 minimum wage and Medicare for All. A recent campaign advertisement in which several Illinois voters, including the state’s other Senator Tammy Duckworth, say “f*** Trump” went viral on social media.
Who Is Robin Kelly?
Kelly was first elected to Illinois’ 2nd Congressional District, which covers much of Chicago, in 2013. She was born in New York City but attended college at Bradley University in Peoria.
Kelly’s early career included work in community affairs in Matteson, Illinois, and service in the Illinois House of Representatives from 2003 to 2007. She later became chief of staff to Illinois Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias.
How Competitive Is the Illinois Senate Race?
The Illinois Senate election is not considered competitive outside the primary.
Both the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify it as solid or safe for Democrats. Kalshi’s betting odds give Democrats a 97 percent chance of holding the seat in November.
Illinois is generally viewed as safe for Democrats, though it did shift notably to the right in the 2024 presidential race. It backed former Vice President Kamala Harris by about 11 points over President Donald Trump. Four years earlier, it backed former President Joe Biden by about 17 points.
But 2026 is not expected to be more favorable to Republicans. In fact, the president’s party typically loses ground in the midterms, so analysts do not currently believe the state will be competitive.
When Is the Illinois Senate Primary?
The Illinois primary is set for March 17, 2026. The general election will be held on November 3, 2026.
What People Are Saying
A spokesperson for Representative Robin Kelly told Newsweek: “Robin Kelly is the true progressive in this race and her opponents know it. Robin has shown courageous moral leadership on tough issues her opponents are unwilling to address. Robin is standing her ground as the most qualified and experienced candidate in this race and she will not let SuperPACs and billionaires dictate the outcome. Illinois deserve better. After millions of dollars in spending for our opponents, a recent poll clearly shows Juliana Stratton has hit her ceiling and Robin Kelly is rising faster than any candidate in the race.”
Juliana Stratton spokesperson Allison Janowski told Newsweek: “Juliana has closed the gap in this race because voters know that she will be the strongest fighter against Trump and bring bold ideas built on the progress she’s delivered in Illinois to the Senate. No amount of money can convince voters to overlook Congressman Krishnamoorthi’s record of voting to thank and fund ICE while taking money from MAGA allies, Trump advisors, an ICE contractor, a Project 2025 author. Illinoisans are tired of the status quo in Washington, and they’re ready to send a real fighter to the Senate.”
Raja Krishnamoorthi spokesperson Hannah Goss told Newsweek: “Raja Krishnamoorthi is an immigrant who has fought like hell to rein in ICE and hold Donald Trump and his roving gangs accountable. Stratton’s dark money super PAC – which has already gotten caught misleading Illinois voters – is trying to distract from the fact that she is backed by MAGA donors and ICE contractors who helped run the Broadview ICE facility. Illinoisans cannot trust Juliana Stratton or her super PAC friends.”
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