Map shows countries set to have largest populations in 2100

By the end of the 21st century, the world’s population landscape could look markedly different, with several countries in Africa projected to join the ranks of the most populous nations, according to new data.

On Thursday, the U.S. Census Bureau released new population estimates, projections and other demographic data up to the year 2100 for 21 countries and areas, and Newsweek has created an illustrative map.

Why It Matters

Global population projections for 2100 highlight both growth and collapse, depending on location. Rapid demographic shifts have broad implications for economic growth, social welfare, labor markets and international influence.

What To Know

India is forecast to remain the country with the largest population, growing from 1,419,316,933 people today to 1,482,525,207 in 2100.

China, currently the second-most populous nation in the world, is set to decrease its population, going from 1,407,181,209 people to 662,821,646 in 2100.

The Census Bureau estimates that by 2100, the population of the United States, the third-most populous country in the world, is set to hit 365,558,109—up from 338,016,259 today.

Tanzania is set to see the highest growth rate by 2100 (1.22), followed by Mauritania (1.18), Benin (1.11) and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (1.01)—all in Africa.

Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to provide more than half the global population increase until 2050, according to the U.N. Commission on Population and Development.

Both men and women in the region express a preference for larger families. In Burundi, Kenya, Malawi, Rwanda and Zimbabwe, the ideal family size is 3.5 and four, according to the latest Demographic and Health Surveys—which were conducted between 2010 and 2022.

Meanwhile, in Chad, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mali, Niger and Nigeria, the ideal family size is more than six.

Conversely, families in wealthier countries are having fewer children as cultural traditions shift away from the prioritization of parenthood in general, according to a recent study.

What People Are Saying

The U.N. Department of Economic and Social Affairs said in its July report: “Fertility transitions in sub-Saharan Africa exhibit distinctive characteristics compared to other low- and middle-income countries. The fertility decline started later, and the pace of fertility decline has been markedly slower in sub-Saharan Africa than in Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean.”

U.S. Vice President JD Vance voiced concerns in January about declining birth rates, saying: “We failed a generation not only by permitting a culture of abortion on demand but also by neglecting to help young parents achieve the ingredients they need to lead a happy and meaningful life. … Our society has failed to recognize the obligation that one generation has to another is a core part of living in a society to begin with. So let me say very simply, I want more babies in the United States of America.”

What Happens Next

As nations adjust to these new realities, the countries set to have the largest populations in 2100 may find themselves contending with both unprecedented challenges and opportunities in a world dramatically changed from today.