Nate Silver says Trump’s approval rating in uncharted territory

President Donald Trump’s approval rating is now entering uncharted territory, according to polling analyst Nate Silver. 

Newsweek contacted the White House for comment via email outside regular working hours. 

White House spokesperson Davis Ingle told Newsweek in a previous emailed statement, “The ultimate poll was November 5, 2024, when nearly 80 million Americans overwhelmingly elected President Trump to deliver on his popular and common-sense agenda.”

Why It Matters 

Approval ratings often shape political momentum, especially heading into a midterm cycle. 

With the 2026 elections approaching, shifts among independents could prove more consequential than loyalty within Trump’s base.

What To Know

Silver said Trump’s approval rating had slipped into new territory, even as the White House pushed back against the significance of day-to-day polling and his political base remained firmly behind him.

Sharing a chart from his approval rating tracker, Silver wrote on X: “Not a huge impact from Iran yet, but a new net low in our Trump approval tracking today.”

The chart shows Trump’s overall net approval across all voters at minus 15.3 percent, marking the lowest point recorded in Silver’s model so far. 

That decline is being driven largely by near-universal disapproval among Democrats and increasingly negative sentiment among independent voters.

Republicans, however, are not moving in lockstep. 

Within that group, self-identified MAGA voters remain a loyal core. 

Recent national surveys, including one from NBC News, have shown Trump’s approval among MAGA-aligned voters at near-unanimous levels, with roughly 90 percent backing the administration’s strikes related to the Iran conflict.

That divide helps explain why overall approval can fall even as enthusiasm inside Trump’s base holds steady. 

Different voter blocs are weighing the Iran operation and the broader direction of the administration in markedly different ways.

Trump has publicly brushed off unfavorable polling in recent weeks. Speaking with the New York Post about approval numbers tied to the Iran war, he said: “I think that the polling is very good, but I don’t care about polling. I have to do the right thing. This should have been done a long time ago.”

How Silver’s Tracker Works

Silver’s approval tracker combines all available polls, whether conducted among adults, registered voters or likely voters, with a preference for all-adult samples when multiple versions exist.

Each survey is weighted based on pollster rating, sample size, recency and how frequently a pollster releases data. 

The model also adjusts for consistent “house effects” that can cause some pollsters to lean systematically more positive or negative than others.

What People Are Saying

White House spokesperson Davis Ingle told Newsweek in a previous emailed statement: “The president has already made historic progress not only in America but around the world. It is not surprising that President Trump remains the most dominant figure in American politics.”

Senior elections analyst Eli McKown-Dawson wrote in Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin blog on March 18: “We’re 14 days into the Iran War. The conflict remains unpopular across most polls, although it still enjoys strong support among Republicans. 

“Donald Trump’s approval rating, however, has been relatively stable. We’re no longer seeing a rally-around-the-flag effect—meaning a boost in presidential popularity at the beginning of a conflict—but Trump’s support hasn’t declined either.”

Brett Loyd, a polling and research specialist for the Independent Center, previously told Newsweek: “Presidential approval remains a functional barometer for tracking the momentum of an administration’s start and finish, but its day-to-day utility has diminished. In this polarized era, partisan lenses create a floor and ceiling that rarely budge. 

“If you’re a Democrat, you disapprove of a Republican President and vice versa. This makes the sentiment of nonpartisan and independent voters the only truly valuable metric left for measuring genuine shifts in leadership standing.”

What Happens Next

Attention is likely to remain focused on how independent voters respond as the Iran conflict develops and domestic priorities compete for public attention. 

With multiple economic and foreign policy tests ahead, approval trends may fluctuate as new events reshape the broader political landscape.

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