Seven governor races most likely to flip parties in 2026 elections

Several gubernatorial races are viewed as competitive ahead of the 2026 midterms. Here is a look at the seats forecasters believe are most likely to flip in November.

Republican Governors Association (RGA) Deputy Communications Director Kollin Crompton told Newsweek on Friday that Democrats “running at the gubernatorial level have records they cannot defend.”

Newsweek also reached out to the Democratic Governors Association for comment via email

Why It Matters

At the moment, 27 states are led by Republicans and 23 by Democrats. But that could change after November, when dozens of gubernatorial offices are up for grabs. Democrats are hoping for a 2018-style “blue wave” that will boost them in key races fueled by President Donald Trump’s faltering approval marks. However, they are defending seats in several states won by Trump in November 2024, so these races are still expected to be competitive.

What To Know

Although the elections are still 10 months out, campaigns are already underway for these critical gubernatorial seats. Victory in these states could boil down to core questions including the state of the economy and whether Trump’s popularity rebounds by November.

Grant Davis Reeher, professor of political science at Syracuse University, told Newsweek that the environment is favorable to Democrats, and that 2025’s off-year elections suggest that “local races have become heavily affected by national-level reactions and concerns, which would further aid Democrats.”

“Whether that apparent phenomenon will carry over to gubernatorial elections is a little less clear, as those elections can still be determined by factors particular to that state. See Republican Phil Scott’s continued popularity in Vermont, for example,” he said.

Here are the races viewed as most competitive:

Arizona

Once viewed as more solidly conservative turf, Arizona has emerged as a battleground over the past decade, having backed former President Joe Biden in 2020 and Trump in 2024 by more than 5 percentage points—his best showing in any swing state.

Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs is up for reelection after eking out a victory in 2022 against Republican Kari Lake.

U.S. Representative Andy Biggs has led in polling against other Republicans including attorney Karrin Taylor Robson and U.S. Representative David Schweikert. Trump has endorsed Biggs and Robson.

Early polls suggest it is likely to be among the most competitive races of the midterms. An Emerson College poll, which surveyed 850 registered voters from November 8 to November 10, 2025, showed Hobbs leading Biggs by 1 point (44 percent to 43 percent), Robson by 1 point (43 percent to 42 percent) and Schweikert by 5 points (44 percent to 39 percent).

A Noble Predictive Insights poll from August showed Hobbs leading Biggs by 2 points (39 percent to 37 percent) and also Robson by 2 points (40 percent to 38 percent).

The Cook Political Report classifies the race as a toss-up.

Georgia

The gubernatorial race in Georgia is also expected to be competitive. Although the state has not elected a Democratic governor in more than two decades, it has become more dynamic as Atlanta and its suburbs have grown and become more liberal.

Several prominent politicians are in the race. On the Republican side, state Attorney General Chris Carr, Lieutenant Governor Burt Jones and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger are all running. Jones has received the endorsement of Trump.

Democratic candidates include former Atlanta Governor Keisha Lance Bottoms, former Lieutenant Governor Geoff Duncan, a former Republican, State Senator Jason Esteves, former DeKalb County CEO Mike Thurmond, former state Representative Derrick Johnson and state Representative Ruwa Romman.

There has been no polling of the general election made public. Cook views the race as a toss-up.

Iowa

Iowa is a more conservative state, but Democrats are hoping its election could be competitive, especially if the state feels the sting of Trump’s tariffs. The state was once a battleground, backing former President Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, but also supported Trump in each of his three races. GOP Governor Kim Reynolds declined to seek a third full term.

Representative Randy Feenstra, as well as state legislator Eddie Andrews and former state Representative Brad Sherman, are running in the GOP primary. Rob Sand, the state’s auditor and only elected Democrat, faces Paul Dahl and Julie Stauch in the primary but has received support from the party and is viewed as the front-runner.

One poll gave Sand an advantage over Feenstra. The Z to A Research poll of 1,351 likely voters from October 9 to October 13, 2025, gave Sand a 2-point lead (45 percent to 43 percent).

The race is viewed as “Leans Republican” by Cook.

Kansas

Two-term Democratic Governor Laura Kelly is unable to run for a third term in Kansas, a state typically viewed as solidly Republican. Kelly’s retirement gives Republicans perhaps their best opportunity to flip a seat, as Kanas backed Trump by 16 points in 2024.

Democratic Senators Ethan Corson and Cindy Holscher are both running, while Democratic Representative Sharice Davids is also viewed as a potential candidate.

Numerous Republicans including radio host Doug Billings, former Governor Jeff Colyer, Kansas Senate President Ty Masterson, former Johnson County Commissioner Charlotte O’Hara, Insurance Commissioner Vicki Schmidt and Secretary of State Scott Schwab will compete in the primary.

Cook classifies the race as “Leans Republican.”

Michigan

Michigan, where Trump defeated former Vice President Kamala Harris by less than 2 percentage points, is set to be one of the most competitive states. Its gubernatorial race may be even tighter due to former Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan running as an independent.

Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson and Lieutenant Governor Garlin Gilchrist are the leading candidates in the Democratic primary. Republican candidates include former Michigan Attorney General Mike Cox, Representative John James, former Michigan House Speaker Tom Leonard and GOP Senate leader Aric Nesbitt. Polls give James a lead over other Republicans.

An EPIC-MRA poll showed James leading Benson and Duggan with 34 percent of the vote; Benson received 33 percent and Dugan 20 percent. It surveyed 600 registered respondents in November, reported the Detroit Free Press.

A Rosetta Stone poll also gave James a lead over Benson and Duggan, showing James with 39 percent support compared to Benson’s 34 percent and Duggan’s 18 percent. However, in a matchup with Cox, Benson led with 37 percent, while Cox held 33 percent support and Duggan 19 percent.

That poll surveyed 637 likely voters from October 23 to October 25, 2025, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.88 percentage points.

Cook classifies the race as a toss-up.

Nevada

GOP Governor Joe Lombardo in Nevada is viewed as Republicans’ most vulnerable incumbent heading into the midterms. Nevada, a swing state, backed Trump by about 3 points in 2024. Nevada Attorney General Aaron Ford is seen as the front-runner in the Democratic primary.

An Emerson College poll, the most recent of the race, pointed to a dead heat between the two candidates, with each receiving support from 41 percent of respondents. It surveyed 800 registered voters from November 16 to November 18, 2025, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

A Noble Predictive Insights poll, reported by Las Vegas-based news station KTNV, showed Lombardo with a 3-point lead (40 percent to 37 percent). It surveyed 766 registered voters from October 7 to October 13, 2025, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.54 percentage points.

Cook classifies the race as a toss-up.

Wisconsin

Wisconsin Governor Tony Evers, a Democrat, opted to retire rather than seek a third term in office, leaving open a seat in the closest state of the 2024 election.

Many prominent Democrats are running, including: Lieutenant Governor Sara Rodriguez; former Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes; State Representative Francesca Hong; Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley; State Senator Kelda Roys; and former State Representative Brett Hulsey. Representative Tom Tiffany is among the candidates running in the Republican primary.

One poll of the race has been made public: The Impact Research survey showed Barnes leading Tiffany by 6 points (50 percent to 44 percent). It surveyed 500 likely voters from October 2 to October 8, 2025, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

Cook views the race as a toss-up.

What People Are Saying

RGA Deputy Communications Director Kollin Crompton, also to Newsweek: “Americans across the country have seen the stark difference in Republican versus Democrat leadership, and that’s why it’s an absolute fact that Republican-led states are more affordable and safer, while Democrat-led states are among the most expensive and have allowed their cities to become hellscapes of crime and homelessness. Looking ahead to 2026 — Democrats running at the gubernatorial level have records they cannot defend.”

Grant Davis Reeher, professor of political science at Syracuse University, also to Newsweek: “State-specific factors should remain important, along with the national mood. As far as the economy, few voters expect governors to be able to do that much about inflation, but they can affect or start programs that address unemployment and its effects, and they can try to address housing shortages, which contribute to housing costs. But there’s still deep resistance to raising taxes, broadly speaking, and that constrains what governors can do to really move the dial on these issues. Expect a lot of rhetoric, but not a lot of ambitious programs or new thinking to address the issues.”

What Happens Next

Candidates will spend the coming months making their cases to voters in those key races.

In addition to these battleground races, there are other states with potential to become competitive. Cook classifies gubernatorial races in Maine, Minnesota, New Mexico and Pennsylvania as “Likely Democratic” and those in New Hampshire and Ohio as “Likely Republican.”