Ted Cruz odds of becoming Supreme Court justice as he reveals Trump chat

The odds of Republican Senator Ted Cruz of Texas becoming the next Supreme Court justice remain low on a popular betting site, after he said he spoke to President Donald Trump about previous vacancies and declined the opportunity each time. 

“In the first Trump term, the president spoke to me seriously about all three vacancies, and three times I said no, because I don’t want to be out of the arena of the political battle,” Cruz said during a Wall Street Journal Opinion Live interview. “I think there’s too much need there.” 

The odds of Cruz becoming the next Supreme Court justice are currently at 9% on Kalshi. 

Trump floated Cruz’s name as a potential Supreme Court justice during a speech in January at an event where Cruz was in attendance, calling him a “brilliant man.” 

“If I nominate Ted Cruz for the United States Supreme Court, I will get 100 percent of the vote. The Democrats will vote for him because they want to get him the hell out [of the Senate]. And the Republicans will vote for him because they want to get him the hell out, too,” Trump said. 

Senate Judiciary Chairman Chuck Grassley named Cruz as a preferred replacement if Alito were to retire. 

Grassley told recently told reporters on Capitol Hill, “I hope he doesn’t retire, but if he does retire, I’m going to suggest that either [Senator Mike] Lee or Cruz be put on the Supreme Court.” 

There is no vacancy on the court at this time, but there has been speculation about the court’s two oldest conservative justices, Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito, retiring. Neither justice has announced plans to retire. 

The Supreme Court currently has a 6-3 conservative majority, including three justices appointed by Trump during his first term: Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett. The Court’s conservative majority has ruled in favor of the Trump administration on several issues such as immigration enforcement. 

Trump previously said in an interview with Politico that he hopes Thomas and Alito remain on the bench.  

“I hope they stay ’cause I think they’re fantastic, OK? Both of those men are fantastic,” Trump said. 

The individual with the highest odds of becoming a Supreme Court justice on Kalshi is U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit Judge Andrew Oldham, with 20% odds. Oldham was nominated to the appeals court by Trump in 2018 and previously was a law clerk for Alito. 

Will Justices Samuel Alito or Clarence Thomas Retire? 

Alito, 76, and Thomas, 77, have not publicly said they will retire from the court. 

Trump said in an interview with Fox Business Network’s Maria Bartiromo on Wednesday that he is “prepared” to name another justice if one or more retire. 

“It could be two, could be three, could be one. I don’t know — I’m prepared to do it,” he said. 

There has been less speculation about Thomas’ retirement, The Hill reported. 

The New York Times reported that those in close contact with Alito said they are unsure about his plans. 

Alito became ill at an event in Philadelphia last month and was treated for dehydration. He did not stay at the hospital overnight and returned to court the following Monday. 

Alito’s friends, former colleagues and law clerks said that he would prefer to have a Republican president choose his successor, The New York Times reported. 

The expected release date of Alito’s new book has also led legal experts to speculate that he might have plans to retire this year. The book, So Ordered: An Originalist’s View of the Constitution, the Court, and Our Country, is scheduled to be released on October 6. The first day of arguments in the Supreme Court’s 2026-2027 term is set for October 5. 

Elie Mystal, a legal analyst and justice correspondent for The Nation, said in a column: “It sure feels like Alito doesn’t plan on having a real job the Tuesday his book launches and instead thinks he’ll be free to run around the country promoting it.” 

Mystal said that most recent books released by sitting Supreme Court justices had publication dates in September or May, with the exception of Justice Sonia Sotomayor’s children’s book published in January 2022. 

Georgetown University Law Center professor Steve Vladeck said in his newsletter, One First, that “the October publication date is a pretty big tell since one can’t exactly go on a book tour during the first argument session of the term.”  

David Lat, a legal journalist, expressed a different view in a Bloomberg Law column.  

“As for the Oct. 6 publication date, I’m assuming Alito and his publisher simply wanted to take advantage of the spike in media coverage of the court that the start of a new term brings,” he said. “Yes, this will curtail Alito’s ability to go on a book tour or do signings, but I’m guessing that’s a feature, not a bug, from the justice’s point of view.” 

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