NFC Hierarchy/Obituary: Week 14 edition

6) 49ers (9-4): The 49ers keep beating bad teams, blah blah blah…

I’m more interested in the quote of the year from the Browns’ Shelby Harris about Niners WR Juaun Jennings, via Camryn Justice:

Lol.

Last week: 7

5) Eagles (8-4): It’s pretty wild to me that an Eagles topic of discourse over the last few days has been the team’s decision to go for two following a touchdown that left them down by 9 points with 3:10 left in the game.But let’s take a quick step back. Down 15, the Eagles needed two touchdowns and at least one two-point conversion to tie it up. You need the two-point conversion either way. You can either wait until after you get the second touchdown to go for two, thus “keeping it to one score” with a successful PAT, as I’ve heard people argue endlessly over the last few days, or you go for two after the first score, and then know if you need one or two more scores, based on the outcome of the two-point try. But again, and I can’t stress this point enough, YOU NEED THE TWO-POINT CONVERSION EITHER WAY.It’s a very obviously logical “go for 2” situation: • If you go for 2 after the first TD and get it:
Cool, you still have a shot. Kick off, play good defense, get the ball back, and go score again. Hell, you even have the option of kicking the PAT to go to OT, or just winning it outright in regulation by going for two again. And personally, my guess is that the Eagles would have opted to go for two again, seeing as one outcome of OT is a tie, which does not help them. The Cowboys already have a tie this season, so an Eagles tie would put tiebreakers back in play. The Eagles and Cowboys split, but the Eagles have a loss against one of the other NFC East teams (the Giants), while the Cowboys do not.Also, your kicker already missed a PAT earlier in the game, so it’s not as if a PAT is exactly a sure thing anyway.• If you go for 2 after the first TD and you don’t get it:Bummer. You’re almost certainly going to lose. But, at least you know that you need two scores, and not just one. In 2020, the Cowboys went for 2 when they were down by 9 late in a game against the Falcons. They didn’t get it. But, knowing that they needed two scores informed how they should strategically play the rest of the way. They got a stop, and then drove 76 yards on 9 plays for a TD in a lightning-fast 1 minute and 8 seconds. They then recovered an onsides kick, and had time leftover to drive 26 yards for a game-winning field goal.Similarly, the Eagles were able to adjust their strategy knowing that they needed two more scores instead of one. They had less time to work with than the Cowboys did in their 2020 game, but they made the right choice to get into reasonable field goal range, try for a long field goal, maybe get the onsides kick, and then try a Hail Mary. It never got that far, as Jake Elliott missed the field goal and that was the game, but at least they knew what they needed.• If you wait to go for 2 until the second TD, and you get it:Cool, you’re going to overtime, same as you would have if you got the two-point conversion after the first TD instead.• If you wait to go for 2 until the second TD, and you don’t get it:
Well, now you need another possession to try to score again, and you probably didn’t play your last possession in a way in which you’re trying to conserve as much time as possible.The main argument for this strategy was posed by J.J. Watt, who tweeted: 

The counterpoint would be the human element of a team’s mindset/mentality only being down one score instead of two.

Right or wrong, there is some unquantifiable aspect to the belief & confidence of knowing you’re only down one score.

This isn’t a perfect analogy, but it’s similar to playing blackjack, and staying on, saaayyyyy, 13, with the dealer showing a face card. You’re already likely to lose, but mathematically, the clear play is to hit. Of course, if you hit, there’s a decent chance you’ll bust, and you lose before the dealer has to even show their other card. If you stand on 13, you’re even more likely to lose, but at least you had the illusion of staying alive a little longer by getting to see the dealer’s card and hoping they bust instead.Nick Sirianni made the right decision to go for two… definitively.Criticism of that decision distracts from what should be the real focus of Sirianni’s shortcomings, which is that the Eagles’ offense is a rudderless abomination and the staff rolls out the same uncreative, predictable, boring garbage every week that hasn’t worked all season.Last week: 2

4) Bears (9-3): After stripping Jalen Hurts on a Tush Push, the Bears’ offense took the field and had the following drive:

1. Monangai run for 31
2. Monangai run for 5
3. Monangai run for 9
4. Monangai run for 1
5. Monangai run for 9
6. Williams throw incomplete
7. Williams pass to Loveland for 7
8. Monangai run for 9
9. Swift run for 6
10. Monangai run for 5
11. Williams pass to Moore for 6
12. Monangai run for 4, TD

Kinda reminds me of what the Eagles used to do.

Last week: 6

3) Packers (8-3-1): Micah Parsons has 6 sacks in his last 3 games and now 12.5 on the season. He was everywhere on Thanksgiving against the Lions:

HUGE NFC North matchup Week 14: Bears at Packers.