What kind of impact is AI having on jobs? Right now, no one really knows – WTOP News

The job market has slowed, especially for recent college graduates and entry-level workers, and while people have suspicions about why, no one really knows if it’s because of AI.

For Virginia Sen. Mark Warner, that’s a problem.

Warner, who has a positive view of the technology, also acknowledged that many Americans don’t feel the same way, in large part because of what AI leaders keep saying about how this tech is going to impact jobs.

“We can see all these positives coming with things like increased medical advances, actually making folks more productive,” Warner said. “But I’m also terrified over at least the short term, say the next five years, about the job dislocation. And that means not only job elimination, but it means a lot of firms not hiring folks.”

He said it’s time for the federal government, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics in particular, to begin tracking the real impact AI is having right now, since no one really knows what the reality is.

“We don’t really know much of anything. That’s the problem,” Warner said. “It’s almost all anecdotal.”

Warner cited BLS data from last year that showed roughly 9% of recent college graduates are unemployed right now. He worries the number could jump much higher, and what the economic impact could be if it does.

“There are people that hired too much post-pandemic and now are bringing things back down,” he said.

He also pointed to industries like software and human resources, and the impact AI programs appear to be having on them already.

Past statements from Dario Amodei, the CEO of Anthropic, which makes the Claude chatbot, have suggested half of all jobs could be taken over by AI.

“He stopped saying that,” Warner noted. “But on the other hand, we’ve seen his product, Claude, come out and completely disrupt the software industry and the HR industry. … I’ve had other CEOs who privately said they’re not giving the same dire predictions because they’re afraid of blowback in terms of job elimination.”

Warner said people aren’t investing in or creating AI chatbots without thinking about the bigger picture and the greater efficiencies.

“We’ve seen a dramatic hit on these two specific industries, software and HR. I think we’ll see more,” he said.

Warner also said if guardrails aren’t established to protect Americans, the negative impacts could end up being even worse than the failure to rein in social media with kids was.

“I think this is existential,” Warner said. “I think this is the biggest priority that we’re missing real time. I wish I was more optimistic that we could get ahead of this.”

But getting ahead of things involves having the right information, and right now, that doesn’t exist. Sometimes, a company blames AI for their own business mistakes; while other companies announcing layoffs are specifically saying AI is not responsible.

“We just don’t have good data,” Warner said. “I’ve talked to more experts than I care to think about and they’re all over the lot. But I actually think … CEOs are underestimating (AI’s impact), because what they tell me privately is very different than what they say publicly.”

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