What the latest jobs data mean for mortgage rates

This week’s much-awaited jobs report has not provided the answers experts were waiting for, suggesting there is no clear winner in sight in the “tug of war between the labor market and the mortgage market” expected to play out next year.

The U.S. economy added 64,000 jobs in November after losing 105,000 in October, according to data released on Tuesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, with the private sector reporting the most gains. The unemployment rate in the same month ticked up to a four-year high of 4.6 percent. 

“In this mid-month release of employment data, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is reporting evidence of a weakening labor market,” Bright MLS Chief Economist Lisa Sturtevant said in a statement shared with Newsweek.

“The report comes with a few asterisks, and we are going to need more data to get a clear picture about the overall health of the labor market. For the 2026 housing market, it is going to be a tug of war between the labor market and the mortgage market,” she added.

Why It Matters

With the current uncertainty surrounding the U.S. economy, the jobs report is being watched closely by experts—especially those at the Federal Reserve, which has to decide whether to continue cutting rates next year. This, in turn, influences the direction taken by mortgage rates.

Almost all economic reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, however, were delayed by the 43-day government shutdown, which ended last month after becoming the longest in U.S. history. In October, no unemployment rate was published for the first time since 1948.  

What To Know

The country is navigating economic uncertainty due to the recent slowdown and the impact of the Trump administration’s tariffs. But the latest jobs report did not provide much more clarity, experts say.

“According to the BLS report, the U.S. lost over 100,0000 jobs in October, largely driven by a sharp decline in federal government employment. The September employment numbers were also revised downward slightly,” Sturtevant said. 

“Employment bounced back somewhat in November, with employers adding 64,000 jobs last month. Still, the November employment figures point to slower labor market conditions. The unemployment rate in November was 4.6 percent, up from 4.4% in September, and the highest level in nearly four years.”

According to Redfin’s head of economics research, Chen Zhao, mortgage rates are likely to remain unchanged following the release of the October and November data this week, which shows a weakening job market that has yet to stabilize.

“The Fed has a high bar for further rate cuts,” Zhao said. “Today’s data, with all of its uncertainties, is unlikely to push the Fed toward cutting again in the near future. Mortgage rates will remain steady for the time being.”

Other experts disagree, saying that the jobs report only adds pressure on the Fed to continue cutting rates next year—something with which President Donald Trump would certainly agree, as he has been pushing for months for bigger cuts.

What People Are Saying

Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank (Dallas, Texas), said in a statement shared with Newsweek: “The latest jobs data pressure the Fed to cut rates again when they next meet in January. Hiring momentum has weakened in recent months, and the Fed will want to arrest this deterioration and help labor demand regain traction.”

Jamie Cox, Managing Partner for Harris Financial Group (Richmond, Virginia), said in a statement shared with Newsweek: “The jobs data show further evidence that the Federal Reserve is behind the curve and will need to reduce rates again in January.”

Gbenga Ajilore, Chief Economist at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, said in a statement shared with Newsweek of the latest jobs data: “The bottom line is the labor market continues to show weakness at a time when costs are rising due to the administration’s harmful tariffs and cuts from the megabill that is taking away food assistance from millions of people and taking away premium tax credit enhancements that have helped people afford health care.”

Alex Jacquez, Groundwork Collaborative’s Chief of Policy and Advocacy, said in a statement shared with Newsweek: “Today’s long-awaited jobs report confirms what we already suspected: Trump’s economy is stalling out and American workers are paying the price. Far from sparking a manufacturing renaissance, Trump’s reckless trade agenda is bleeding working class jobs, forcing layoffs, and raising prices for businesses and consumers alike.”

What Happens Next

Sturtevant said that cooling economic conditions “are likely to lead to lower mortgage rates in 2026, which would help fuel strong homebuying activity next year.” However, growing uncertainty about job security among workers could also “temper housing demand, offsetting the benefits of lower rates,” she said.

It is unclear which of these two forces will prevail over the other next year, Sturtevant added.

Comerica forecasts for the Fed to cut the federal funds target a quarter of a percent at their next decision on January 28. Altogether, they expect the Fed to cut rates a cumulative three-quarters of a percent in 2026.