2025 Winter meetings: Separating fact from fiction as Cubs become frequent name in rumor mill

ORLANDO – Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer was surprised by how quickly the relief market moved this offseason, as top names signed before Thanksgiving.

“That’s unusual,” Hoyer said Monday at MLB’s winter meetings. “You’re constantly trying to gauge when things are going to move, or how that’s going to happen. … That’s a constant source of conversation.”

But since the Cubs took their own early swing at the reliever market, signing Phil Maton to a two-year deal worth $14.5 million, they’ve been cited in more rumors than concrete news. One was even debunked in a matter of minutes.

To be fair, the buzz in the lobbies of the Signia and Waldorf Astoria hotels was also devoid of concrete news Monday, despite the influx of baseball executives, agents and media members. The slow first day of the winter meetings was another example of the unpredictability of the markets.

Until that activity ramps up, untangling the rumor mill is as informative as any exercise in gauging the Cubs’ approach to this offseason as any.

Let’s start with the facts: It’s fair to say the Cubs are expected to be engaged in the upper end of both the relief and starting pitching markets.

Hoyer confirmed on Monday that the Cubs would be involved in the no-doubt high-leverage reliever market.

“Whether we end up signing someone or not, I don’t know,” he said. “Depends on how other teams value them, honestly. But we can definitely be in that market, and we’re obviously going to sign more relievers this offseason.”

A similar asterisk would be appropriate to add to their starting pitching quest: it’s unclear whether the Cubs will be out-bid on the top available pitchers.

Hoyer confirmed on Monday that the Cubs are looking for another starting pitcher and said they could, if counting swingmen, add multiple pitchers who could make starts next season.

The Cubs were, as the Athletic reported, involved in right-hander Dylan Cease’s free agency until the bidding reached $200 million, sources confirmed.

That bit of information, however, took on a life of its own in a game of aggregation and analysis telephone. The resulting interpretation that the Cubs were runners up, or offering just a hair below $200, was incorrect, according to sources. It also did not accurately reflect the Athletic’s initial report.

In other words, as talks progressed with Cease and his representatives, the Cubs were comfortable within the previous bidding range, but the jump eliminated them from the race. Cease ultimately signed a seven-year deal worth $210 million with the Blue Jays.

Then of course, there was the quickly rescinded report from USA Today that the Cubs had signed right-hander Zac Gallen.

The saga at least showed that the Cubs are back to being big enough players on that market that they can believably be included in such rumors.

On the position player side, there’s been buzz around the Cubs’ reported interest in veteran free agent third basemen, including Alex Bregman and Eugenio Suárez.

“I’ve been surprised by the number of media reports that link us to different guys,” Hoyer said Monday when asked about the team’s confidence in third baseman Matt Shaw ahead of his sophomore season. “There’s zero lack of confidence in Matt. Actually, I would say the opposite.”

Hoyer described Shaw’s early struggles at the plate in his rookie season as “expected.” He evaluated Shaw’s defense by the end of the year as “Gold Glove quality.” Shaw was, indeed, a Gold Glove finalist.

“I actually thought there were a lot of huge positives last year,” Hoyer said. “If you told me at the beginning of the year that this was going to be the totality of his season, I would have been like, ‘I’m good. I think we’re in a good place.’”

That wasn’t a denial of the Cubs’ survey of the free-agent landscape at the position – league sources confirmed that this offseason the Cubs have shown interest in Bregman, who they also pursued last spring – but rather a show of support for Shaw.

A team doing its due diligence doesn’t equate to a lack of confidence in its current players.

There are certain to be more rumors and misinterpretations as the offseason goes on. But at some point, there will also be signings and trades. Traditionally, the winter meetings have helped fan the flames.

“We have a lot of energy,” Hoyer said. “We have a real focus on a lot of areas. I think it’ll lead to activity; I can’t tell you when. We could have an active December, we could have an active January. We’re not going to do bad deals just to do something quick.”