Canada tourists deal economic blow by skipping US

Canadian tourists are foregoing travel to the U.S. amid a period of strain in the bilateral relationship, with plummeting visits threatening the American tourism industry and wider American economy.

According to data released Monday by Statistics Canada, the number of Canadians making return visits to the U.S. by car fell 4.5 percent in March, when compared to same month last year.

It noted that last year’s figures were also impacted by “political tensions between Canada and the United States,” and said that comparing March 2026 to March 2024 revealed a 34.9 percent decline in round trips.

Why It Matters

Before 2025, Canada was the largest source of international visitors to the U.S., according to the U.S. Travel Association, which last year warned that even a 10-percent reduction could translate into “$2.1 billion in lost spending and 14,000 job losses.”

According to a report from the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), the decline in inbound travel eventually came to 25 percent, attributed to rising “trade tensions” caused by President Donald Trump’s tariffs as well as his repeated reference to Canada as a potential “51^st state.”

What To Know

Statistics Canada said that overall return trips by Canadian residents to the U.S. totaled two million last month, down 7.6 percent from a year prior. In addition to automobile travel, the agency said return trips to the U.S. by air had fallen 13.8 percent year-over-year in March.

Travel industry representatives and economic analysts have observed the decline and noted that this continues to hold significant consequences for the tourism industry—estimated to account for around 3% of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP).

“In my 37 years in the travel industry, I have never seen anything like what the Canadians have pulled off,” Amir Eylon, President and CEO of the tourism research and consulting firm Longwoods International, told Forbes.

Overseas trips to other destinations have been on the rise, however, and a report from the Royal Bank of Canada notes that the decline in U.S. travel has helped to support a resurgence in domestic tourism.

Seen as part of a wider move toward economic self-sufficiency by Canada, this trend has been lamented by Democrat lawmakers in the U.S., but celebrated by political leaders within Canada.

During a recent conference, Prime Minister Mark Carney declared that Canadians were “rediscovering our country,” while outlining his government’s plan to prioritize domestic suppliers, further diversify exports away from the U.S. and to pursue a more independent economic and foreign policy.

What Happens Next

Experts have forecast an uptick in travel to the U.S. in 2026 compared to 2025. Oxford Economics predicts a 3.9 percent increase in international inbound travel, supported in part by the U.S. hosting the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

“However, ongoing policy uncertainty and enforcement actions from the Trump administration are likely to limit gains,” its report reads, “leaving the U.S. at risk of underperforming other international destination markets again this year.”